The Future of Cities: Part 3

EUGE...QVav

17 Jul 2023

195

In the first two parts of this article series on the future of cities, we introduced some of the key concepts and frameworks that can help us to understand and envision the future of cities based on existing research and evidence. We also explored some of the specific trends, opportunities, and scenarios that shape the future of cities in the domains of economy and society.

If you haven’t read the first two parts yet, you can find it here:
The Future of Cities: Part 1
The Future of Cities: Part 2

In this third and final part of the series, we will explore some of the specific trends, opportunities, and scenarios that shape the future of cities in the domains of environment and technology.

The Future of Cities: Environment

The environment is one of the most critical aspects of urban life, as it determines the health, safety, and quality of life of urban dwellers. The environment is also one of the most threatened aspects of urban life, as it is affected by various factors, such as climate change, pollution, resource depletion, etc.

How will the environment of cities evolve in the future? What are some of the challenges and opportunities that cities will face in terms of environmental sustainability? What are some of the scenarios or options that cities can pursue to achieve more resilient, green, and circular environments?

According to UN-Habitat, some of the key trends that will shape the future of cities’ environment are:

The impact of climate change: Cities will face more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, droughts, storms, etc., that can cause damage to infrastructure, disruption to services, displacement of people, and loss of lives. Cities will also face more gradual and long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, etc., that can affect their water availability, food security, biodiversity, etc.
The pressure on natural resources: Cities will consume more energy, water, land, and materials to meet their growing population and economic needs. Cities will also generate more waste and emissions that can pollute their air, water, and soil. Cities will face increasing competition and conflict over scarce and degrading natural resources with other cities, regions, and countries.
The need for green infrastructure: Cities will invest more in green infrastructure, such as parks, gardens, trees, wetlands, etc., that can provide multiple benefits for urban dwellers, such as cooling, shading, drainage, recreation, etc. Green infrastructure can also enhance the resilience and adaptation of cities to climate change by reducing their exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events and by increasing their capacity to cope with and recover from them.
The potential for circular economy: Cities will adopt more circular economy principles and practices that aim to reduce their resource consumption and waste generation by designing products and systems that are durable, repairable, reusable, recyclable, or regenerative. Circular economy can also create new opportunities for urban innovation, employment, and social inclusion by fostering new business models, services, and networks that involve multiple actors and stakeholders in the urban system.

Based on these trends, UN-Habitat proposes four scenarios or options for the future of cities’ environment:

The business-as-usual scenario: Cities continue to follow conventional models of environmental management that prioritize economic growth over environmental sustainability. Cities exploit natural resources without regard for their limits or impacts. Cities are vulnerable to climate change and face increasing environmental problems.
The eco-city scenario: Cities adopt green infrastructure and circular economy models of environmental management that prioritize environmental sustainability over economic growth. Cities conserve natural resources and minimize waste and emissions. Cities are resilient to climate change and enjoy high environmental quality.
The smart city scenario: Cities leverage digital technologies and artificial intelligence to optimize their environmental performance and innovation. Cities monitor and manage their resource consumption and waste generation using smart meters, sensors, and platforms. Cities are efficient and productive but face digital divide, cybersecurity, and privacy issues.
The inclusive city scenario: Cities pursue balanced models of environmental management that integrate economic growth and environmental sustainability. Cities use natural resources wisely and reduce waste and emissions equitably. Cities are adaptive to climate change and inclusive of all urban dwellers.

The Future of Cities: Technology

Technology is one of the most influential aspects of urban life, as it enables, enhances, and transforms various functions and activities of urban dwellers. Technology is also one of the most uncertain aspects of urban life, as it creates new opportunities and challenges for urban development and innovation.

How will the technology of cities evolve in the future? What are some of the challenges and opportunities that cities will face in terms of technological advancement? What are some of the scenarios or options that cities can pursue to achieve more smart, innovative, and human-centered technologies?

According to UN-Habitat, some of the key trends that will shape the future of cities’ technology are:

The diffusion of digital technologies: Cities will witness a rapid and widespread adoption of digital technologies, such as internet, mobile devices, cloud computing, social media, etc., that can improve the connectivity and accessibility of urban dwellers to information, services, opportunities, and networks. Digital technologies can also enable new forms of urban governance, participation, and collaboration among various actors and stakeholders in the urban system.
The emergence of artificial intelligence: Cities will experience a growing and pervasive presence of artificial intelligence, such as machine learning, natural language processing, computer vision, etc., that can augment or automate various tasks and functions of urban dwellers, such as education, health, transport, security, etc. Artificial intelligence can also generate new insights and solutions for urban challenges and innovation by analyzing large and complex data sets.
The development of biotechnology: Cities will explore the potential and implications of biotechnology, such as genetic engineering, synthetic biology, biomedicine, etc., that can manipulate or modify living organisms or biological systems for various purposes, such as health, food, energy, environment, etc. Biotechnology can also raise ethical and social issues for urban dwellers, such as identity, privacy, equity, etc.
The convergence of technologies: Cities will witness the convergence and integration of different technologies, such as digital, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, nanotechnology, etc., that can create new synergies and capabilities for urban dwellers, such as smart materials, wearable devices, brain-computer interfaces, etc. The convergence of technologies can also create new uncertainties and risks for urban dwellers, such as cyberattacks, bioterrorism, technological singularity, etc.

Based on these trends, UN-Habitat proposes four scenarios or options for the future of cities’ technology:

The business-as-usual scenario: Cities continue to follow conventional models of technological development that prioritize efficiency and productivity over sustainability and equity. Cities adopt technologies without regard for their impacts or implications. Cities are dependent on technologies and face increasing technological problems.
The eco-city scenario: Cities adopt green technologies and biotechnologies of technological development that prioritize sustainability and resilience over efficiency and productivity. Cities use technologies to conserve natural resources and enhance environmental quality. Cities are harmonious with nature and enjoy high technological quality.
The smart city scenario: Cities leverage digital technologies and artificial intelligence of technological development that prioritize innovation and competitiveness over sustainability and resilience. Cities use technologies to optimize their performance and solve their challenges. Cities are connected and integrated with global networks and platforms but face digital divide, cybersecurity, and privacy issues.
The inclusive city scenario: Cities pursue balanced models of technological development that integrate efficiency, productivity, sustainability, and equity. Cities use technologies to improve their well-being and inclusiveness. Cities are adaptive to change and human-centered.

Conclusion

In this third and final part of the article series on the future of cities, we have explored some of the specific trends, opportunities, and scenarios that shape the future of cities in the domains of environment and technology. We have discussed:

The impact of climate change
The pressure on natural resources
The need for green infrastructure
The potential for circular economy
The diffusion of digital technologies
The emergence of artificial intelligence
The development of biotechnology
The convergence of technologies

I hope you enjoyed reading this article series and learned something new about the future of cities. I also invite you to share your thoughts and opinions on this topic with us.

Question for you:

What are some of the environmental and technological challenges and opportunities that your city is facing or will face in the future? How do you think your city can achieve a more resilient, green, and circular environment? How do you think your city can achieve a more smart, innovative, and human-centered technology? Which scenario or option do you prefer for the future of your city’s environment and technology?