The Future of Cities: Part 1

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16 Jul 2023

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The future of cities is a fascinating topic that has attracted the attention of many researchers, policymakers, planners, and citizens around the world. Cities are the hubs of human civilization, where culture, innovation, economy, and society converge and interact. Cities are also facing many challenges, such as climate change, urbanization, inequality, poverty, health, and security.
How can cities cope with these challenges and transform themselves into more resilient, sustainable, and inclusive places for the future?

In this article series, we will explore some of the key trends, opportunities, and scenarios that shape the future of cities based on existing research and evidence. We will also suggest some ways that cities can prepare themselves for the future and become more adaptable and responsive to change.

We will draw on the World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities, a comprehensive report by UN-Habitat that provides insights and recommendations on the future of cities based on global analysis and case studies.

In this first part, we will focus on the following aspects:

The drivers of change that affect the future of cities
The dimensions of urban futures that capture the complexity and diversity of cities
The principles of informed preparedness that guide the future-oriented actions of cities

The Drivers of Change

The future of cities is not predetermined or fixed. It is influenced by various factors that can create different outcomes depending on how they interact and evolve over time. These factors are called drivers of change, and they can be classified into two types: trends and disruptions.

Trends are long-term patterns or movements that can be observed or measured over time. They can be positive or negative, depending on how they affect different aspects of urban life. Some examples of trends that affect the future of cities are:

Demographic trends: such as population growth, aging, migration, diversity, etc.
Economic trends: such as globalization, digitalization, innovation, inequality, etc.
Social trends: such as urbanization, social movements, cultural changes, etc.
Environmental trends: such as climate change, resource depletion, pollution, etc.
Technological trends: such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, smart cities, etc.
Political trends: such as governance reforms, decentralization, participation, etc.

Disruptions are sudden or unexpected events or conditions that can alter or interrupt the normal course of trends or create new ones. They can be positive or negative depending on how they affect different aspects of urban life. Some examples of disruptions that affect the future of cities are:

Natural disasters: such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, etc.
Pandemics: such as COVID-19
Conflicts: such as wars, terrorism, civil unrest
Crises: such as financial crises, energy crises
Breakthroughs: such as scientific discoveries, technological innovations

The drivers of change are not isolated or independent from each other. They can interact and influence each other in complex and dynamic ways. For example:

Climate change can increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters
COVID-19 can exacerbate social and economic inequalities
Digitalization can enable social movements and citizen participation
Innovation can create new solutions for urban challenges

The drivers of change can also have different impacts on different cities depending on their context and characteristics. For example:

Population growth can create opportunities for economic development in some cities but challenges for service delivery in others
Globalization can increase competitiveness and connectivity in some cities but marginalization and vulnerability in others
Urbanization can enhance social cohesion and diversity in some cities but segregation and conflict in others

Therefore, it is important to understand how the drivers of change affect different aspects of urban life in different contexts and scenarios.

The Dimensions of Urban Futures

The future of cities is not a single or uniform vision or outcome. It is a spectrum of possibilities that reflect the complexity and diversity of urban realities and aspirations. To capture this spectrum, UN-Habitat proposes four dimensions of urban futures that can be used to describe and compare different scenarios or options for the future of cities. These dimensions are:

Spatial: how cities are organized in terms of physical form, structure, and layout
Functional: how cities perform in terms of economic, social, environmental, and institutional functions
Relational: how cities interact with other cities, regions, and actors at different scales and levels
Normative: how cities are governed and influenced by values, norms, and principles

Each dimension can have different attributes or indicators that can be used to measure or evaluate the performance or quality of a city in the future. For example:

Spatial: density, diversity, accessibility, connectivity, etc.
Functional: productivity, efficiency, resilience, sustainability, etc.
Relational: cooperation, integration, influence, competitiveness, etc.
Normative: equity, inclusion, participation, justice, etc.

Each dimension can also have different scenarios or options that can be used to illustrate or envision the future of a city. For example:

Spatial: compact vs. sprawled, polycentric vs. monocentric, planned vs. informal
Functional: diversified vs. specialized, smart vs. dumb, green vs. brown
Relational: networked vs. isolated, global vs. local, cooperative vs. competitive
Normative: democratic vs. authoritarian, diverse vs. homogeneous, harmonious vs. conflictive

The dimensions of urban futures are not mutually exclusive or independent from each other. They can interact and influence each other in complex and dynamic ways. For example:

Spatial dimensions can affect functional dimensions: e.g., compact cities can be more efficient and sustainable than sprawled cities
Functional dimensions can affect relational dimensions: e.g., diversified cities can be more cooperative and influential than specialized cities
Relational dimensions can affect normative dimensions: e.g., networked cities can be more democratic and diverse than isolated cities
Normative dimensions can affect spatial dimensions: e.g., inclusive cities can be more accessible and connected than exclusive cities

Therefore, it is important to consider how the dimensions of urban futures are interrelated and interdependent in different contexts and scenarios.

The Principles of Informed Preparedness

The future of cities is not a passive or deterministic process. It is an active and participatory process that involves various actors and stakeholders who have different roles and responsibilities in shaping and influencing the future of cities. These actors and stakeholders include:

Urban dwellers: the people who live, work, and interact in cities
Urban managers: the people who plan, design, and manage cities
Urban leaders: the people who govern, represent, and advocate for cities
Urban partners: the people who support, collaborate with, and invest in cities

Each actor and stakeholder has a different perspective and interest in the future of cities. They also have different capacities and resources to influence the future of cities. Therefore, it is important to engage them in a dialogue and a process that can enable them to share their views and visions for the future of cities.

UN-Habitat proposes a framework for such a dialogue and process based on the principles of informed preparedness. Informed preparedness is a state of readiness that provides us with the opportunity to anticipate change, correct the course of action, and become more knowledgeable of the different scenarios or possibilities that the future of cities offers.

The principles of informed preparedness are:

Evidence-based: using reliable data and information to understand the current situation and trends of cities
Futures-oriented: using foresight methods and tools to explore the potential scenarios and options for the future of cities
Action-focused: using strategic planning and decision-making to identify the priorities and actions for the future of cities
Participatory: using inclusive and collaborative approaches to engage all relevant actors and stakeholders in the dialogue and process for the future of cities

By applying these principles, urban actors and stakeholders can enhance their awareness, understanding, and capacity to shape and influence the future of cities.

Conclusion

In this first part of the article series on the future of cities, we have introduced some of the key concepts and frameworks that can help us to understand and envision the future of cities based on existing research and evidence. We have discussed:

The drivers of change that affect the future of cities
The dimensions of urban futures that capture the complexity and diversity of cities
The principles of informed preparedness that guide the future-oriented actions of cities

In the next part of the series, we will explore some of the specific trends, opportunities, and scenarios that shape the future of cities in different domains, such as economy, society, environment, and technology.

I hope you enjoyed reading this article and learned something new about the future of cities. I also invite you to share your thoughts and opinions on this topic with us.

Question for you:

What are some of the drivers of change that you think will have a significant impact on the future of your city? How do you think they will affect your city in terms of spatial, functional, relational, and normative dimensions?