Bitcoin and almost a year of the ETFs
Good morning/evening
It has been almost a year now of Bitcoin having an ETF so it is time to reflect but I first want to say that I have often called the ETFs a double edged sword, yes they legitimized Bitcoin which in the eyes of TradFi turned Bitcoin from risky unregulated internet money into Bitcoin is a respectable, fixed supply digital commodity, but I was unsure when they were being approved, because I sort of expected them to sell as big as they would buy. I also did briefly consider that if I had a good few Bitcoin (If we had sold the house) would I be scared to self custody that much, and would an EFF take away some of that risk, even though I understand that it goes against the original ethos of Bitcoin. Well to some extent it is not what it was intended for anyway as Bitcoin has become more of a store of value than for P2P transactions. Well the ETFs and retail have lived together now for almost a year, each to their own I guess.
Self custody Bitcoin
Held in your wallet, no intermediaries, no permissions, no counterparty risk.
ETF BItcoin
Held by custodians, structured in a trust, tradable only through regulated markets, fully trackable.
Both serve a purpose.
Both expand the network.
Both reinforce Bitcoin’s dominance.
But they’re not equal.
The ETF version is perfect for scaling global adoption.
The sovereign version is perfect for protecting individual freedom.
Can these two live together, sise by side? Well so far they have. We all say things move quickly in crypto and they do as in less than a year there have been many new developments. I understand that some may not see this as an improvement.
- Pension funds can own Bitcoin.
- 401(k) funds can include Bitcoin.
- Sovereign wealth funds can allocate to Bitcoin.
- Insurance companies can justify Bitcoin exposure.
- Bank wealth advisors can recommend Bitcoin without hyperventilating!
We, as retail get FOMO around macro events and see things that may excite us about Bitcoin, we followed the cycles and to some extent even the price predictions, no matter how much we try to not listen or get excited by them. The institutions do not buy based on emotion, they buy and sell based on algorithms and quarterly rebalancing and risk ratios. I know that us as investors are not supposed to be emotional, or love our bags, but that for me is very difficult and something I will try harder to improve on.
Some investors will have Bitcoin in their portfolios without even knowing it by having a 'basket' or a mixed bag of assets, because most corporations, pension funds, university endowments, and government treasuries don’t invest directly, they invest through asset managers and If their asset manager allocates to a Bitcoin ETF, then so do they, but without the conviction that it is a great asset.
ETF inflow/outflows https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf

These are just a few of the milestones of high volume inflows and outflows.

The top four ETFs, approx US dollar of Assets Under Management and Bitcoin held at the time of writing.

I was worried about more market manipulation before the ETFs came out, but hey Binance and Wintermute amongst others, have that one sorted, but even though we know about that, what is the better option to invest in? Yes Bitcoin has become somewhat of an institution game, they are the ones that can move the needle on the price, not me with a weekly or monthly DCA lol but I still do not see a better asset to invest in. Even if there is less volatility in the future and the worst case was that I doubled my investment, I still do not see that as a bad thing.......I wont get that from a bank! I could start to learn about stocks (it is still on my 'to do list') but I have spent years learning about crypto (still learning) and could spend more years learning about stocks. ALT coins have performed badly, even my beloved Solana has been trading in a small range for 2 years! 100X for a random ALT coin is no longer going to happen IMO.
To Conclude
So for me even though Bitcoin has turned into a more corporate asset with ETFs, banks, corporations, nation states and even countries buying it, I still see it as my best bet when investing and therefore until I find an asset that will give me a better long term return, then Bitcoin will still be my main asset in crypto. I know some of you will disagree so please feel free to comment and share your thoughts.
As always, thank you for reading.