Ukraine risks losing Chasov Yar before receiving US aid

Many experts and officials believe that Ukraine will continue to face many difficult weeks, and even risk losing Chasov Yar before US aid arrives.

The US House of Representatives last weekend passed a military aid package worth nearly 61 billion USD after months of delay. American weapons and ammunition will soon be transferred to Ukraine if the bill is passed by the Senate this week

However, many Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military experts believe that the aid package was approved by the US too late, putting Kiev in a very difficult situation on the front lines. During the months the aid was stuck in the US Congress, the Russian military controlled an additional area equivalent to 20% of Ukraine's area and gained the initiative on the battlefield.

"The question is whether the above ammunition will arrive in time to help Ukraine keep Chasov Yar," said Rob Lee, an expert at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). The stronghold is about 15 km west of Bakhmut. Realizing Ukraine's ammunition depletion, Russia recently increased its attack pressure on Chasov Yar and approached the city's eastern suburbs.
Ukrainian commanders said that if they control Chasov Yar, Russia can bring other nearby strategic cities within artillery range and turn this place into a fulcrum to launch deeper attacks.

A series of other strongholds that Ukraine is holding near Chasov Yar include Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka, of which Kramatorsk is the last major town they control in Donetsk province.


The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on April 20 that Russian forces "can still make significant campaign progress in the coming weeks" and may prioritize thinner areas on the air defense. Ukrainian lines, especially west of Avdeevka, or where they were close to important tactical targets such as Chasov Yar. A senior Ukrainian official commented that the amount of US weapons about to be poured into the country, including artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles, "will slow down Russia's advance but cannot stop them". Many Ukrainian experts worry that Washington's support for Kiev will not last until the conflict ends


"This large aid package may be the last this year. Furthermore, there is a high risk that all subsequent aid packages for Ukraine will be much smaller in scale," said a former Ukrainian officer from the analysis group. Frontelligence Insight analyst said.

According to this group, aid from the US and the European Union (EU) will ensure the supply of military supplies to Ukraine for about another year.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in early April that the number of Russian artillery shells fired was 10 times more than Ukraine's. After the US announced the aid package, Ukrainian officials said this gap would somewhat narrow, but not disappear completely. Expert Lee shared the same opinion and assessed that "Russia still has an advantage in artillery, although not as large as before."


The bill announced by the US House of Representatives only lists the source of money to buy weapons, not the number of systems the country will provide. Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technology (CAST), assessed that the advantage that Ukraine is expected to have depends on the amount of weapons the country will receive from the US.
"Coordinated operations between fighters and anti-aircraft missiles could force Russia to significantly cancel its large-scale glide bombing campaign," Mr. Pukhov said. "However, if Ukraine does not use such important systems on a large scale, it cannot make a significant impact on the front line."

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukrainian defense minister who is director of the Kiev-based Center for Defense Strategy, expressed his hope that the US aid package would be enough to end Russia's current momentum on the battlefield.

However, Zagorodnyuk admitted that the military aid package from the US only helps Ukraine solve one of the major challenges the country is facing. Another problem that Ukraine needs to solve is the problem of human resources. According to expert Lee, this could be "the key to deciding the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2025".

The US and Ukraine estimate that Russia can currently recruit about 30,000 troops per month or enough to make up for losses on the battlefield. Meanwhile, Ukraine was forced to adopt new mobilization measures to solve the military's personnel problem, including passing a law lowering the mandatory military enlistment age from 27 years old to 25 years old.

The approval of the US aid package of more than 60 billion USD will help Ukraine have more time to resolve outstanding issues so that it can mobilize more troops to the battlefield, analysts say. However, the price they have to pay may be the fall of Chasov Yar, before the situation improves thanks to American weapons.