Make better Decisions - Avoid the Gamblers Fallacy

20 Jul 2022


Do you believe that if something happens once, it is more likely to happen again? If you answered yes, then you are subscribing to the Gambler's Fallacy.

This fallacy is the belief that because something has occurred in the past, it will be more likely to occur in the future.

However, this isn't always the case. In fact, there are a number of factors that contribute to whether something is likely to happen again. In this blog post, we will discuss what the Gambler's Fallacy is and give some examples of why it can be a problem.
The Gambler's Fallacy also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacyis based on the false belief that if something has happened in the past, it is more likely to happen again.

For example, if you flip a coin and it comes up heads, you may believe that the next time you flip the coin, it is more likely to come up tails.

However, the reality is that each flip of the coin is an independent event and has no bearing on what will happen on the next flip. The odds of the coin coming up heads or tails is always 50%. This example shows how the Gambler's Fallacy can lead people to make poor decisions.
Let's say you're at a casino, perhaps in Monte Carlo, and you've been playing the roulette wheel for a while. The last 20 spins of the wheel have all been black. You may start to believe that the next spin is more likely to be red. However, the odds of the ball landing on black or red are still 50%. The previous spins have no bearing on what will happen on the next spin. This is an example of how the Gambler's Fallacy can cause people to make irrational decisions.
The Gambler's Fallacy is a problem because it can lead people to make poor decisions. If you believe that the past can predict the future, you may make some bad choices. For example, you may start to believe that you are due for a win if you've been losing for a while. Or, you may think that you should keep gambling even if you're on a losing streak. The reality is that the past does not always predict the future. Each event is independent and has the same odds of happening, no matter what has happened in the past.
If you find yourself subscribing to the Gambler's Fallacy, it is important to be aware of it. This way, you can make sure that you are making rational decisions.

The next time you're at a casino, or even flipping a coin, make sure to keep the Gambler's Fallacy in mind. It may help you make better decisions and avoid making some costly mistakes.
What are your final thoughts on the Gamblers Fallacy? Do you think it is something that you need to be aware of? Let us know in the comments below. Thanks for reading!

References (Example)

[2] BULB, 'Write to Earn. Read to Earn' (online, 2022) <>

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MBA ChitChat
I pondered the question of what happen to the gambler who only bet with the gambler fallacy all the time at the casino ? say he/she always bet on Red after a streak of 3 Blacks on the Roulette or vice versa, wouldn't he/she have an edge over the casino ? because only the advantageous sample were selected to play.
MBA ChitChat
Great subject ! playing at the casino with Gambler's Fallacy can be dangerous, a long streak run can bankrupt an irrational gambler.
We should always be a good decision maker . In order to get a good result
south coast surfer
Mmmm, this makes quite a lot of sense. Would you apply the same principles for say a punters club, where certain members continually lose on their bet - whether it be NRL, Basketball or even the Horses? Does this mean these members subscribe the the Gamblers Fallacy, or they’re just not good at making their decisions.