Cash flow into Bitcoin ETF reached a record of 1 billion USD in just one day
Bitcoin spot ETF continues to be the main driving force behind the hot rise of the crypto market. On the latest trading day, more than $1 billion poured into these products, with BlackRock's IBTC fund leading the way.
Cash flow into Bitcoin ETF reached a record of 1 billion USD in just one day, BTC price continued to "peak" at 73,000 USD
At the end of the trading day on March 12, US time, data compiled from BitMEX Research showed that the cash flow into Bitcoin ETF funds just recorded a record of 1 billion USD in just one day.
Leading among these is still the familiar name IBIT of BlackRock, with a net capital flow of 849 million USD. That means, BlackRock alone accounts for nearly 85% of the cash flow of spot ETFs.
Furthermore, Grayscale's capital outflow from GBTC was also at a very low level compared to previous days, recording only 79 million USD outflow. For comparison, the highest net withdrawal was on the trading day of January 22, with more than 640 million USD flowing out of the GBTC fund.
These data show that there is almost no selling force from ETFs, only buying force, thereby pushing the BTC price to pump strongly, continuously breaking the peak and setting ATH.
On the afternoon of March 13, Vietnam time, BTC continued to exceed the threshold of 73,000 USD, currently fluctuating at a price level that has never been seen during the 15-year history of this coin's existence.
BlackRock's IBIT has now accumulated about 204,000 BTC, worth about $14.7 billion. Next is Fidelity's FBTC with more than 128,000 BTC and Ark Invest/21Shares' ARKB with nearly 38,000 BTC.
The competition has now moved to a new "battlefield": BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Just 2 days ago, on March 11, BlackRock's ETF held more BTC than MicroStrategy. But 1 day later, MicroStrategy bought another 12,000 BTC, increasing its holdings to 205,000 BTC. Thus, MicroStrategy owns 1,000 BTC more than BlackRock.
Of course, with the current flow of capital into ETF funds, BlackRock's holdings could increase even more in the near future. So this war is still "evenly matched".
It is also important to note that the above mentioned huge cash flow comes from the Bitcoin spot ETF, a product approved by the SEC just 2 months ago. Meanwhile, futures ETFs launched in 2021 currently only account for 10% of the market share.
This shows that investors still prefer direct exposure to BTC through ETFs rather than futures-based products. From there, it also shows the importance of spot ETF, and explains the expectation for Ethereum spot ETF this coming May.
However, the story is not too optimistic for ETF products for Ethereum, as Bloomberg analysts recently reduced their approval rate prediction to only 35%.
In a simultaneous development, analysts at Bloomberg reduced their prediction for the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF in May to only 35%.
In the context of the crypto market heating up thanks to the influx of money into Bitcoin spot ETFs, the community is increasingly looking forward to the SEC approving the Ethereum spot ETF in May.
However, as the deadline gets closer and closer, there is no sign that the Securities Commission will give the "green light". In interviews, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler responded "vaguely" about the prospect of approval.
The SEC chairman has maintained his stance against crypto, saying that only spot ETFs are allowed for Bitcoin, the only cryptocurrency considered a commodity.
Meanwhile, according to the Chairman, since Ethereum switched to the Proof-of-Stake mechanism, it has possessed the properties of a security. The SEC itself has listed up to 52 tokens as securities in a series of lawsuits throughout 2023.
During the delay of BlackRock and Fidelity's proposal in early March, the SEC asked for public comments on whether ETH's Proof-of-Stake raises "concerns about vulnerability to fraud and manipulation." of ETH or not”.
When the matter is not yet resolved, it is difficult for this agency to "give the green light".
For the above reasons, Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas predicts:
“We bet there is a 35% chance of approval.
But also note here, 35%, not 0%. In the long term, we still believe this product will be approved."
In January, this analyst predicted a 70% chance of an Ethereum spot ETF being approved in May. While colleague James Seyffart gave an estimate of 60-65%. But now, the probability of this happening has dropped to only 35%.
James Seyffart explains on X that:
“This Ethereum spot ETF feels contrary to the previous Bitcoin ETF approval. We're about 73 days away from the deadline and there really seems to be little to no possibility."
Variant Foundation Legal Director Jake Chervinsky was even more blunt:
“To be clear, I'm not saying there is *zero* chance of a spot ETH ETF being approved this year. I'm just saying that the general sentiment in the market right now is overestimating the chances of approval.
The good news is that we will likely get more signals about the SEC's direction in the coming weeks. The SEC has already signaled the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the days leading up to the January deadline. If we Not starting to see those signs and hearing those reports about Ethereum spot as the May 23 deadline gets closer means the likelihood of approval is very low."
ETH price is fluctuating around 4040 USD, currently only about 17% away from the ATH of 4,868 USD recorded in November 2021.
