Could the upcoming Ethereum upgrade boost ETH price
Ethereum's governance decisions do not appear to have much impact on ETH price.
A recent study by a trio of scholars sheds light on this relationship, especially regarding EIP (Ethereum Improvement Proposal). The Ethereum Improvement Proposal is a formal document that proposes new features or changes to the Ethereum blockchain to guide community consensus.
The study focused on Ethereum's decision-making process and discovered a prominent trend. In the period leading up to the final discussions on the Core EIP, the price of ETH increased by about 18% and relative to Bitcoin it increased by 12%.
The study also examined the concentration of power in Ethereum governance and found that a small group of developers and KOLs hold significant power over the EIP process.
The next major Ethereum upgrade is Dencun, expected to reduce transaction costs on layer 2, coming at the end of February. Ethereum developers will test Dencun on the Sepolia and Holesky testnets on January 30. and February 7. The study's authors are Cesare Fracassi and Moazzam Khoja at the University of Texas at Austin and Fabian Schär at the University of Basel. The article has not yet been subjected to academic peer review
The data speaks volumes
The study analyzed ETH price trends during the discussions and final approvals for the successful Core EIP, looking at hourly price data from May 2016 to November 2023.
One of the most important findings is that ETH price increased by 18% in the last AllCoreDevs calls before the big EIP.
AllCoreDevs call is a regular meeting when Ethereum core developers discuss and make decisions about the EIP.
The price increase is seen as reflecting increasingly optimistic investor expectations regarding the likelihood of proposal approval and the potential impact on the token's value.
To ensure accurate analysis, the researchers focused on a specific period of 80 days, divided equally before and after these meetings.
Research shows that ETH price starts to increase about 30 days before important discussions.
A clear pattern is also seen when comparing ETH to Bitcoin.
In the 25 days before the Core EIP was approved, the price of ETH relative to Bitcoin typically increased by around 12%, showing that ETH is on a significant upward trend ahead of major changes to the Ethereum network.
Such an increase is especially significant given the centralized governance structure, in which a small group holds significant influence over key decisions.
For example, an average of 10 implementers per client are responsible for 80% of all software changes. Each client is a different software instance running the Ethereum protocol.
When comparing ETH's performance to the S&P 500, price movements do not always align with stock market trends, suggesting that the factors influencing ETH are different from those driving the market.
For market participants, from ordinary investors to institutional traders, these insights can offer some valuable perspectives on how governance-related events may become become an important indicator for investment strategies.
For the Ethereum community and developers, the data highlights the impact their decisions have, not only on the network's technical trajectory but also on its financial ecosystem.
ETH price performance over the past 30 days | Source: CoinGecko
ETH's price was $2,266, up 0.87% on the day, after falling 16% from its yearly high of $2,700 on Jan. 12.
The Dencun upgrade is about a month away from completion, which according to research could coincide with an increase in ETH prices.
