Why do we so often waste time on trivial matters?

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3 Feb 2023
63

We make many decisions every day: when to wake up, when to exercise, what to have for breakfast, and more. Most decisions are easy and we don't bother with them.

But, we also make all kinds of other difficult and important decisions—decisions that we just can't stop thinking about. Those lead to sleepless nights. Whether to have children, marry a specific person, buy a house, pursue a career path.

These decisions are difficult because no one option clearly dominates other equally good alternatives. These decisions often have a major impact on our lives.

Have you noticed how you spend too much time deciding what to think when you have too many options? Decide whether it's easy, hard, or life changing.

The related question is, are these options equally attractive, and since we can't reduce our uncertainty by doing further research, why do we waste so much time thinking about our options?

This paradox, often referred to as Fredkin's paradox, states: "In situations where a choice must be made, as the options are more and more closely matched in utility, the decision becomes more difficult, but the consequences become more difficult."

In many decisions, when you narrow the options and the alternatives are qualitatively close, even if the outcomes become less insignificant, the decision becomes difficult. This is true for both big and small decisions.

Fredkin's paradox pops up all over the place, especially when we make simple and life-changing decisions.

"Consider a choice between two flavors of ice cream: chocolate or vanilla. You'll find both options equally appealing (for example), so it doesn't feel like one choice clearly dominates the other.

Think about the last time you bought a smartphone. The first decision -- and the easiest -- is probably which type of smartphone you want. For many buying a smartphone is about make, price, design and more.

Others consider features, reliability, safety, insurance, maintenance costs, etc. Even if you know what you want, you'll still struggle with the last two options.

We do this in restaurants, supermarkets, retail stores, and even when we are deciding what socks to wear. Even if the decision doesn't affect what economists call "expected utility," we'll still have a long time to consider alternatives.

This paralysis is confronted with no information, an abundance of information known as the paradox of choice. While this paradox haunts your buying decisions, the paradox of choice can influence many of your investment decisions.

Merely knowing about Fredkin's paradox probably won't lessen your tendency to overthink your options. The philosopher Alan Watts once pointed out that the process we call "decision" - the gradual movement towards resolution - is often not the case. Instead, it's just a period of switching back and forth between options, followed by sudden, intuitive, semi-random choices.

When you optimize your life according to the path of least regret, you assume that one of your future selves has a simulated future state and try to feel how much regret you will experience. It's an incredible way to consider your options when making life-changing decisions, as long as you use accurate, better, and complete information.

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