China-Taiwan Tensions

Taraudani2006

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15 May 2025

China–Taiwan Tensions: History, Geopolitics, and the Threat of War

Introduction
Historical Background
The Birth of Two Chinas
Taiwan's Democratic Evolution
One-China Policy and Strategic Ambiguity
Military Posturing and Provocations
Cross-Strait Economic Ties and Dependency
Key Incidents Fueling Tensions
US-Taiwan Relations and Arms Sales
Role of Japan and Regional Security
China's Military Strategy and Invasion Scenarios
Taiwan’s Defense Posture
Role of International Organizations
The Tech War: Semiconductors and TSMC
Disinformation, Cyber Warfare, and Gray Zone Tactics
Public Opinion in Taiwan and Mainland China
Global Economic Impact of a Taiwan Crisis
Diplomatic Challenges and Peace Proposals
Taiwan’s Strategic Options
Conclusion

1. Introduction

Tensions between China and Taiwan have intensified into one of the most volatile flashpoints in global geopolitics. While war has not broken out, the threat looms large. At the heart of the matter lies the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) insistence that Taiwan is a breakaway province, while Taiwan increasingly sees itself as a sovereign democratic nation. With increasing military activity, diplomatic pressure, and technological rivalry, this tension could shape the future of the Indo-Pacific region and global order.

2. Historical Background

The roots of the China-Taiwan conflict lie in the Chinese Civil War (1927–1949):

The Kuomintang (KMT), led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Communist Party of China (CPC), led by Mao Zedong, fought for control of China.
In 1949, Mao declared the establishment of the PRC in Beijing.
Chiang retreated to Taiwan, establishing the Republic of China (ROC) in Taipei.

Since then, two governments have claimed legitimacy over “One China,” but only the PRC is recognized internationally.

3. The Birth of Two Chinas

Initially, Taiwan (ROC) held China’s UN seat. However:

In 1971, the UN recognized the PRC as the legitimate government of China.
Most countries, including the US, switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.
Taiwan lost its seat in international bodies like WHO, leading to diplomatic isolation.

Despite this, Taiwan has evolved into a democratic, economically advanced society, distinct from Communist-ruled mainland China.

4. Taiwan's Democratic Evolution

Taiwan transformed from military rule to a vibrant democracy:

First direct presidential elections in 1996.
Power peacefully transferred between rival parties (KMT and DPP).
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supports a distinct Taiwanese identity and informal independence.

The rise of pro-independence sentiments in Taiwan has been a major irritant to Beijing.

5. One-China Policy and Strategic Ambiguity

China insists on the One-China Principle: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.
Most countries, including the US, do not recognize Taiwan but maintain unofficial ties under the framework of strategic ambiguity:

The US recognizes Beijing diplomatically.
But the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) commits the US to help Taiwan defend itself.

This ambiguity deters Taiwan from declaring independence and China from using force—a fragile balance.

6. Military Posturing and Provocations

In recent years, China has:

Increased military drills near Taiwan.
Crossed the Taiwan Strait median line, a previously respected boundary.
Flown dozens of fighter jets into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
Conducted naval encirclement exercises simulating blockades.

These moves are meant to intimidate Taiwan and signal China's willingness to use force if necessary.

7. Cross-Strait Economic Ties and Dependency

Despite tensions, China and Taiwan are deeply economically linked:

China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner.
Taiwanese businesses operate in mainland industrial zones.
Bilateral trade in 2022 exceeded $200 billion.

This economic interdependence complicates both countries' strategic calculations, especially in high-tech and supply chains.

8. Key Incidents Fueling Tensions

Several events have escalated tensions dramatically:

1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis: China fired missiles near Taiwan; US deployed aircraft carriers.
2016: Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP became president, refusing to endorse the “1992 Consensus.”
2022: US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan triggered major Chinese military drills.
2023–2024: China intensified pressure before Taiwan’s presidential elections; warned of “grave consequences.”

Each such incident raises fears of miscalculation and unintended conflict.

9. US-Taiwan Relations and Arms Sales

While the US maintains no official ties with Taiwan, it is its most important international backer:

Supplies advanced weapons: F-16 jets, anti-ship missiles, air defense systems.
Supports Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, citing the Taiwan Relations Act.
In 2023, the US approved $1.1 billion in arms sales.
Conducts naval transits through the Taiwan Strait to assert freedom of navigation.

Beijing accuses the US of violating its sovereignty and fueling separatism.

10. Role of Japan and Regional Security

Japan, located near Taiwan, has taken a more vocal stance:

Views Taiwan’s security as integral to Japan’s own national defense.
Participates in Quad (US, India, Australia, Japan) dialogues on Indo-Pacific stability.
Has strengthened its missile defenses and conducted joint drills with the US.

China views Japan's involvement with suspicion, citing its imperial past in Taiwan and rising nationalism.

11. China's Military Strategy and Invasion Scenarios

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly modernizing:

Has developed ballistic missiles, amphibious assault vehicles, cyber and space weapons.
Possible scenarios:
1. Full-scale amphibious invasion
2. Air and naval blockade
3. Decapitation strike on leadership
4. Seizure of offshore islands (Kinmen, Matsu)

But an invasion is risky:

Geographically challenging.
Likely to trigger US and Japanese involvement.
Could devastate China’s economy and global standing.

12. Taiwan’s Defense Posture

Taiwan follows a "porcupine strategy":

Focus on asymmetric warfare to deter invasion.
Investing in mobile missile units, drones, and coastal defenses.
Extending military service from 4 months to 1 year.
Boosting civilian defense training and cyber capabilities.

Public drills simulate air raids and invasions, showing rising concern among the population.

13. Role of International Organizations

Taiwan is excluded from the UN and many global forums, due to Chinese pressure.
However, it:

Participates in APEC and WTO as "Chinese Taipei."
Has strong relations with unofficial diplomatic allies and NGOs.
Seeks WHO inclusion amid global health crises.

China opposes any international recognition or symbolism of Taiwanese sovereignty.

14. The Tech War: Semiconductors and TSMC

Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is a global lifeline:

TSMC is the world’s largest chipmaker, producing over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips.
Both China and the US depend on Taiwan for semiconductors.
A war in Taiwan would cripple global electronics, cars, and AI industries.

Thus, Taiwan's tech dominance adds to its strategic importance and makes it a centerpiece in the US-China tech war.

15. Disinformation, Cyber Warfare, and Gray Zone Tactics

China uses non-military means to destabilize Taiwan:

Cyberattacks on government, media, and critical infrastructure.
Disinformation campaigns targeting elections and social divisions.
Political infiltration and United Front activities to sway public opinion.

These gray zone tactics aim to wear down Taiwan’s resolve without crossing a red line that provokes war.

16. Public Opinion in Taiwan and Mainland China

In Taiwan, the majority support maintaining the status quo—de facto independence without formal declaration.
Only a small minority favors immediate independence or reunification.
In mainland China, nationalist education and media portray Taiwan as a sacred national territory.

The generational divide is striking:

Younger Taiwanese increasingly identify as “Taiwanese,” not “Chinese.”

This identity shift fuels Beijing’s urgency to act before full generational separation.

17. Global Economic Impact of a Taiwan Crisis

A conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have catastrophic economic consequences:

Disruption of semiconductor supply chains.
Blockage of shipping lanes in the South China Sea (through which 60% of global trade passes).
Stock market collapse, energy crises, inflation.
Risk of triggering a global recession.

Multinational corporations are “de-risking” by shifting some supply chains away from Taiwan and China.

18. Diplomatic Challenges and Peace Proposals

Numerous peace proposals have been floated:

“One Country, Two Systems” by China—rejected by all major parties in Taiwan post-Hong Kong crackdown.
Status Quo with stronger deterrence backed by the US.
Negotiated peaceful reunification—highly unlikely under current governments.

No mutually acceptable framework exists. China’s unwillingness to renounce force and Taiwan’s refusal to give up sovereignty create an impasse.

19. Taiwan’s Strategic Options

Taiwan’s path forward involves tough choices:

Strengthen Deterrence: Build more self-defense capacity.
Deepen International Ties: Build unofficial alliances and trade networks.
Tech Diplomacy: Leverage its chip industry for geopolitical support.
Preserve Status Quo: Avoid provocative independence declarations.
Democratic Resilience: Guard against internal subversion.

Taiwan’s strategy is survival through strength, visibility, and alliances.

20. Conclusion

The China-Taiwan tensions represent a critical test for the rules-based international order. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has not yet seen open war, but the risks are even higher due to nuclear powers being involved and the massive economic stakes.
Three paths lie ahead:

Escalation into war with catastrophic consequences.
Stalemate with periodic crises.
Breakthrough diplomacy with regional compromise.

Preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait will require a delicate balance of deterrence, diplomacy, and global cooperation. The choices made by Beijing, Washington, and Taipei in the coming years will shape not only Asia’s future, but that of the world.
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