The US presidential election is preparing for an unprecedented confrontation in more than 70 years

12 Mar 2024

The rematch scenario between US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump in the election later this year will create something unprecedented in more than 70 years.
Reuters quoted estimates from the Edison organization as saying that today, US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will likely accumulate enough delegate votes to receive the party's nomination.

By the end of March 11, Mr. Biden was only 113 delegates short of reaching the minimum 1,968 votes to receive the Democratic nomination. He can gain the necessary number of votes after the primary elections in Georgia, Mississippi, Washington, and the Northern Mariana Islands. These states have a total of 254 delegates.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is only 139 votes short of reaching the necessary 1,215 votes. Today's Republican primaries in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington could bring him another 161 votes.

The Super Tuesday primary election on March 5 shaped this year's presidential election in the US. One scenario that will almost certainly happen is a rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump and that will be the first time in more than 70 years that a sitting US president is running against his predecessor.

The two candidates are both accelerating their election campaigns, ready for a rematch next November.

Challenges for Mr. Biden before the possibility of "rematching" Mr. Trump

US President Joe Biden is expected to face more challenges than in 2020 to defeat former President Donald Trump in this year's election.

After the Super Tuesday primary election on March 5, the scenario of a rematch between US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the election later this year is almost certain. If this scenario takes place, this will be the first time a sitting president and his predecessor "face off" in a US general election since 1892.

However, unlike 2020 when Mr. Biden prevailed over Mr. Trump throughout the entire election campaign, this time, the incumbent President faces a more challenging path. According to observers, Mr. Biden's chances of being re-elected do not exceed 50-50. Mr. Biden's supporters also need to acknowledge the fact that Mr. Trump has a chance to return to the White House.

Surveys published earlier this month by the New York Times, CBS, Fox News, and Wall Street Journal all showed that the support rate for Mr. Trump was 2-4 points higher than that of Mr. Biden.
In 2020, in the states where Mr. Biden won the electoral votes, Mr. Biden's votes were only slightly higher than Mr. Trump's. This year, his position in these battleground states considered to be in the "Sun Belt" is more difficult than four years ago.

The most recent survey shows that he is ahead by at least 5 points in the states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada while no Democratic candidate has ever lost in Nevada since 2004. Sun Belt states include Arizona, California, Florida, Louisiana, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas. The states of South Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama are also considered to belong to this region based on climate factors.

In other words, Mr. Trump is currently leading Mr. Biden, although the gap is not large, but in enough states to win the electoral vote if the election happens right now. American voters say that the top issues facing the country are related to the economy or immigration. In those areas, Mr. Trump receives more credit. If consumer confidence continues to improve or illegal immigration into the US decreases, Mr. Biden can regain the advantage over Mr. Trump.

According to surveys, Mr. Biden's current support rate fluctuates around 40%. Mr. Trump's approval rating is not entirely high, but it is a few points higher than Mr. Biden's. This is very different from 2020.

From now until the general election, Mr. Biden can narrow the gap. But unlike most campaigns, both major party candidates were clearly identified, with less than 5% of voters unable to form an opinion on Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.

To get more people to turn their backs on Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden's best hope may lie in four criminal indictments against the former President. Even so, no one can be sure whether those indictments will make any difference.

According to a New York Times survey, 18% of Mr. Trump's supporters said that even if Mr. Trump were impeached, they would still support him. Meanwhile, 72% of voters participating in the survey expressed concern about Mr. Biden's age, compared to 53% for Mr. Trump.

The question is whether over the next eight months Mr. Trump's weaknesses will begin to reveal themselves more than Mr. Biden's. If this happens, it will be the best chance for President Biden to win another term.

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