Does Saylor of MicroStrategy$MSTR Need to change course?

MicroStrategy $MSTR will crash in a spectacular fashion if Saylor does not change course.
2/ Saylor is creating money from thin air to buy more Bitcoin.

He mints new $MSTR shares at will and sells them to buy more BTC. Smart, right? Except there is a catch.
3/ How does Saylor create free money?

He simply issues new $MSTR shares at zero cost basis and sells them during ATM (at-the-market) offerings.

People buy those MSTR shares and Saylor buys Bitcoin with the profit.

Who's dumb money here?

4/ $MSTR holders.

They buy because Demand > Supply = Premium on MSTR, at least for now.

But by creating more and more shares, holders of MSTR are diluted and its mcap is inflated = bubble.

But that is of little worry so long BTC
price goes up. Right?
5/ WRONG. Bitcoin can also go down in a bear market.

The last time this happened, $MSTR crashed 90%. Next time, MSTR will crash harder and faster.
6/ Because Saylor is now issuing and promising yields between 8% to 10% on preferred shares called STRK & STRF.

In the case of STRF shares, the yield is in "perpetuity" at a fixed rate of 10% on $100.

Since BTC and his company generate no yields, where does it come from?
7/ If you don't know where the yield comes from, you are the yield!

Where did we see this before? Anchor from Terra Luna. It promised 20% yield in "perpetuity" until it crashed to zero.

By promising such yields Saylor guarantees one of two outcomes. Scrolls down.
8/ A future default on his promises or he starts selling his BTC to cover debt outstanding.

Why do you think he is raising so much cash?

What's going on here, exactly? We're getting to the good stuff.
9/ TLDR: Saylor is leverage looping BTC to the tune of billions.

Create more shares = buy more BTC = more BTC collateral = create more shares = buy more BTC... infinite loop.

Do you think this is a free lunch? Time to talk about risk.
10/ Leverage = risk. Leverage looping = huge risk of liquidation.

In the Q1 2025 call, Saylor spent about 10 min on risks and 2h on looping benefits.

"We beat BTC returns this year!!!" That's the definition of leverage looping. But it gets worse.
11/ Between 2021 and 2024, MicroStrategy BTC holdings increased by 123k BTC or 30k/year.

From 2024 to 2025, or in one year, it increased by 314k. That's a 10x increase/year. Bitcoin did not 10x since 2024.

Their looping is going exponential = risks increase. But there is more!
12/ They plan to raise a total of 84 bil to buy more BTC and they already spent 26 bil of that.

It's called the 42/42 strategy! Once done, they move to 84/84 strategy. Do you see what's happening?

Saylor is getting greedy and he is FOMOing hard into Bitcoin! Is it good or bad?
13/ Few realize that more BTC under these conditions is not necessarily good for $MSTR long term!

They are increasing their BTC bag by taking on MORE leverage & risk while diluting holders.

What nobody talks about? You don't actually own any BTC via MSTR!
14/ You cannot redeem MSTR for BTC. The illusion is that you hold BTC. You DO NOT. You hold MSTR shares.

The BTC Saylor is buying is COLLATERAL to new DEBT! He's acting like a central bank, but he's printing shares.

He's gambling with your money. Hmm... Do Kwon anyone?
15/ Saylor is creating a huge bubble and I'm not speaking of BTC, but MSTR.

This leverage bet on Bitcoin works as long as prices go up. But prices also go down and when they do, MSTR will crash the fastest.

Why?
16/ Because Saylor is creating the conditions for an epic MSTR crash later. What will be the trigger? Supply > Demand for his ever inflating number of new shares like MSTR / STRK / STRF. The bubble pops. To stop the bleed, there is only one collateral he owns. Bitcoin.
16/ Because Saylor is creating the conditions for an epic MSTR crash later.

What will be the trigger? Supply > Demand for his ever inflating number of new shares like MSTR / STRK / STRF.

The bubble pops. To stop the bleed, there is only one collateral he owns. Bitcoin.
17/ I can see a situation where it's economically advantageous for Saylor to sell BTC to buy MSTR. Why?

Because the premium on MSTR will be NEGATIVE = it's more profitable to buy MSTR than BTC.

What will Saylor do? We will all find out later. However...
18/ If Saylor does not tone down his leveraged FOMO, eventually he'll face the inevitable.

Sell Bitcoin or default on his debt.

That's how you create a death spiral.

Imagine they hold 1M BTC one day. You can't liquidate that without crashing the price. Catch-22. More so...
20/ Bitcoin will be fine, but in this looping process, it may liquidate Saylor, Jack, and many others.

There is still time for Saylor to avoid the inevitable, but he seems determined to test the limits of his creation.

Only a matter of time before this blows up. Lastly...
21/ What Saylor is doing is sophisticated, but it all lives on just ONE assumption = BTC always goes up.

Yet, he is committed to change that by being FORCED to sell one day. This is a huge bet with your money!