For ordinary investors, I always think that the best time to participate in mining is in the bear market, which is the same as buying coins. When the bear market arrives and the price of the currency plummets, the entire mining industry will spontaneously clean up and be eliminated. We will see news that the mining machines are sold by the some small giants, and the mine has no choice but to close down because of insufficient income. So this is the best time for us to enter the mining industry Up.

Such an opportunity will definitely come

There are always friends who will ask me in the comments after the article whether it is appropriate to participate in mining. So I suggest not to rush, be patient, and wait until the bear market to make bold arrangements.

Many people said that this coin is best for investment because the investment group behind it is very strong, including AZ16 and other Silicon Valley venture capitalists who have participated in its investment. Compared with Bitcoin mining, the hardware requirements are not so high and also its saves energy. I'm cautious about this project, mainly because I think it's very difficult to have a digital currency with simple functionality that can rise by consensus alone at this stage, and Bitcoin's time has passed.

Now, Let's talk about some common risks

The rapid development of Chia mining in the past few months has reached an unimaginable point --- the hard disk is out of stock.

According to the market’s true reflections, hard drives are actually in stock. It’s just that hard drive suppliers have begun to hold back the goods when they see such a large demand for mining. This creates the illusion that hard drives are "out of stock" on the market. I remember the year before and last year, when Filecoin started its big fire, it didn't seem to have such a serious hard disk shortage. At that time, as long as you had money, you could basically buy computing power or mining machines. This time Chia mining is so popular I think the main reason is probably because of the bull market effect.

Will this phenomenon continue? As I understand it now, I don't see any reason for it to continue, or to continue to observe for a period of time. First of all, from a purely functional point of view, although Chia and Filecoin are both hard disk mining, the application scenarios of the two are really incomparable, and Chia is much worse than Filecoin.

Secondly, from the perspective of consensus, can Chia develop into a second Bitcoin? I think even if it can, it has to go through several rounds of bull-bear alternation like Bitcoin, and it can be proved by repeated phoenix-like rebirths. And now Chia has just walked a short distance in the bull market, so it is still unclear whether it can survive the next few bulls and bears.

In Chia, I also saw the same inescapable problem that I saw in Bitcoin, Filecoin and other "mining coins": no matter how much good the founder’s original intention, I hope everyone can participate in a fair and convenient way, but as long as there are commercial interests. This matter will definitely be a massive intervention of capital in the future, and the mining pattern will be completely changed, which will eventually cause ordinary players to leave the field .

The original intention of Satoshi Nakamoto to create Bitcoin was that everyone could use ordinary computers to mine and participate. However, after the development of Bitcoin, ASIC mining machines appeared, and ordinary computers were completely excluded from the circle.

Similarly, Chia's original intention is to allow people to use idle hard drives to participate in mining. Now, there are almost no idle hard drives involved in mining, and they are all first-hand high-performance hard drives. To some extent, this has become a waste of hardware and energy, which has long gone against the original intention of the project founder. And if the project continues to develop into a second Bitcoin, I am afraid that mining specialization and individual players will be out of the game. Therefore, I believe that even if there are new mining projects in the future, as long as the activity has commercial value, the outcome may be the same.

However, as ordinary investors, when we look at a new thing, if we have no luck and missed the car, it is better to stop and think calmly. It is worth participating now. If we really want to participate in the long-term, think again.