Bear market bull market repeat

Good morning/evening
 
So it is my belief that we are in a bear market, I have no idea how long for and of course I could be wrong. The highs and lows may not be as extreme as they have been in the past for Bitcoin but as for ALTs, well some of them you would think can't go much lower but that is just ALTs being ALTs.
 
So what defines a bear market?
 
Well when the Bitcoin price is below the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA) that is generally classed as bear market territory.
 A downtrend in onchain activity.
Miners are below their cost basis.
Sentiment on social media is declaring crypto is dead.
There are many more but these are just a few.
 
Bitcoin’s first major bull run occurred in 2013. Starting the year below $100, Bitcoin surged to over $1,000 by December. This rally was fueled by growing awareness, early exchange adoption, and speculative enthusiasm. However, the infrastructure was immature and when the Tokyo based exchange Mt. Gox collapsed in early 2014 after losing hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins, panic set in. Prices fell more than 80%, ushering in one of crypto’s first extended bear markets.
 
The 2017 bull market remains one of the most iconic periods in crypto history. Bitcoin rose from around $1,000 in January 2017 to nearly $20,000 by December. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s smart contract capabilities enabled the rise of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), where startups raised billions by issuing tokens. Ethereum climbed from under $10 to over $1,400 within a year. Retail investors flooded the market, and new tokens launched daily. But by early 2018 the bubble burst.
 

• Bitcoin had fallen roughly 84%
• Ethereum had dropped over 90%
• Thousands of tokens became worthless (a lot of them still are!)

 
The next major bull run began in 2020, fueled by unique macro economic conditions. During the C-19 pandemic, governments injected massive liquidity into global markets. Interest rates were low, and investors sought alternative assets.
Meanwhile, decentralized finance (DeFi) exploded, allowing users to lend, borrow, and earn yields without traditional banks. NFTs also surged in popularity, some of these reached unbelievable prices for what was technically just a jpeg! 
Bitcoin reached nearly $69,000 in November 2021. Ethereum crossed $4,800, then came the downturn.
Unlike earlier bear markets triggered mainly by speculation, the 2022 crash was marked by systemic failures. Excess leverage across centralized platforms and crypto hedge funds created a fragile ecosystem. It was a house of cards and then they crumbled, there was Terra in May 2022, FTX and Three Arrows Capital. Billions lost, panic and fear for a lot of people and again trust was lost. Bitcoin fell over 75% from its peak. Ethereum declined similarly and once again, headlines declared the end of crypto.
 

 
This year, 2026 it does not feel as dramatic, no 80% plus downturn, (well not yet!) just some long term holders selling and why shouldn't they, some ETF selling and some possible shady shenanigans by exchanges wiping out leveraged traders, some who just gave up after losing so much and yes again on X it is the end of crypto. Is this the end of the boom, bust huge drawdowns for Bitcoin? As the market matures and institutional participation increases, volatility could gradually decline, it is not so much retail that calls the shots now but spot ETFs, regulation, and some manipulation. Also with the Bitcoin market cap rising, it takes a lot more to move the needle so to speak.
 
But perhaps we are still early and crypto is still young, there could be regulation (not sure if that will be good or bad if i'm honest). It may seem all doom and gloom, but for me personally I am less nervous during bear markets than I am during the bull. I had set Bitcoin buy orders that I did not expect to be filled just yet, if ever even as I wondered if I set it too low. Now I have a regular DCA buy and am happy either way, if Bitcoin goes up then I have made a profit earlier than expected, if it goes down, I buy more. It really is that simple. As for ALT coins, I really have no expectations but then I also have no plans to buy any more. I do still have my Solana bag because I was greedy and did not stick to my plan!
 
There was a lot of talk about this cycle being different, I am not convinced yet. If I had followed my chart and not my heart then I would have exited closer to the top than I actually did, but that was just me not trusting my plan entirely. Therefore I also believe that Bitcoin will rise again, the quantum FUD is not something I worry about yet as many other systems will fall before Bitcoin does, the legacy banking system for one! So I will continue with my plan, much like last cycle, buy low, sell high.
 
What we can learn
 
Crypto history does not guarantee future results, but it offers valuable insights:

• Bull markets reward patience and conviction.
• Bear markets reward discipline and risk management.
• Leverage increases vulnerability.
• Long-term adoption trends have historically survived short-term crashes.

Perhaps the most consistent lesson is psychological, markets move in cycles because human emotion moves in cycles. Greed fuels euphoric highs. Fear drives capitulation lows. There will be another Bitcoin halving and Bitcoin will still lead the cycle, not sure what ALT season will look like or if there will be an ALT season. I think we may have to be very selective in that area as most will have no use, no utility and fail.From the Mt. Gox collapse to the ICO crash, from DeFi mania to exchange bankruptcies, crypto markets have repeatedly demonstrated extreme volatility. Yet after every bear market, the industry has reemerged and I do not see that changing, there will still be cycles of some sort.
 
To conclude
 
Just because I think we are in a bear market, that does not make me bearish, if anything my conviction is just as strong as the day I uttered 'all I want is Bitcoin' and to that extent I will just keep buying more. Yes there is no denying Bitcoin is not the same as it used to be, yes the institutions are taking over and yes there is manipulation, but that will never change IMO no matter what regulations come to force, but I still see no better asset to invest in so I will carry on. What are your thoughts? Do you think we are in a bear market and do you see it as a buying opportunity?
 
As always, thank you for reading and please feel free to comment.