Big Weekend: Manchester United v Liverpool, Chelsea, Dubravka, Forest’s Prem six-pointer

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16 Mar 2024
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Man Utd, Newcastle and Chelsea are all desperately trying to keep their seasons alive, with rotten FA Cup ties for two and a no-win for the other. In the Prem, it’s a six-pointer at Luton…
 
Game to watch: Manchester United v Liverpool
It would be too simplistic to say that Liverpool hold Erik ten Hag’s future in their hands, but the Reds could certainly have a say in deciding the Man Utd manager’s fate.


The FA Cup represents United’s last chance of silverware and while a Champions League place might be viewed as a trophy at Old Trafford, even that looks unlikely given the Red Devils’ inconsistency.
Ten Hag is left relying on moments – which might work out fine in the end because this Man Utd is a ‘moments’ team. Few would logically back them to beat Liverpool, even this injury-hit version, but occasionally, they surprise us.
And it would be a shock to see Man Utd progress at Liverpool’s expense. Which is damning in itself. The way Ten Hag’s side have become subservient to those they consider rivals is one of the biggest indictments, not only on the manager but the club as whole.
If Man Utd go for Liverpool, they could be picked off and torn apart. If they sit in, the manager cops it, as he did when his side held Liverpool at Anfield. It’s on Ten Hag to somehow find a balance while Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his minions sit in judgement.
Related video: Liverpool travel to Manchester United in FA Cup Quarter-Final (Dailymotion)


 
Team to watch: Chelsea
Mauricio Pochettino finds himself in a similar position at Chelsea. At least the Blues were given a kinder draw on paper, but that could prove more perilous for the manager.
On Sunday, Championship leaders Leicester go to Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea fans are yet to be won over by their players or manager. It is the second leg of a four-game home stretch which gives Blues fans the opportunity to fully form an opinion on their side’s prospects as thoughts turn towards possible next steps in the summer.
The early noises aren’t good. Actually, they were vitriolic at Brentford and, for the most part, ambivalent on Monday during a win against Newcastle in which neither side earned much credit.
Pochettino knows his squad is not good enough to fulfil his and the club’s immediate ambitions, but such is the fragility of their confidence, he can only pretend and attempt to build up the players who hold his fate in their hands.

For Chelsea and for Pochettino, this is a must-win tie.
Read more: Premier League xG table: 5) Chelsea 9) Newcastle United
 
Player to watch: Martin Dubravka
It is hard not to feel sorry for Newcastle’s stand-in stopper. Dubravka has been playing behind a porous defence but the basic numbers don’t reflect well on the Slovakian.
Dubravka and Nick Pope have each now played 14 Premier League games this season. Pope conceded 14 goals before injury and kept five clean sheets. Dubravka has shipped more than double the number of goals – 30 in total – while achieving three shut-outs. Pope conceded one goal per 90 minutes; that number is 2.3 for Dubravka.
Those raw stats have seen Dubravka come under fire as a sub-standard stand-in, but the situation deserves more context. Pope has faced 53 shots on his goal. In just short of the same number of minutes, Dubravka has faced 89 – a 68 per cent increase. Long story short: Newcastle’s defence has folded in on itself.

Were it not for Dubravka, Newcastle would not still be in the FA Cup to face Manchester City on Saturday evening. His heroics saw them scrape through at Blackburn and Eddie Howe needs a similar performance for his goalkeeper if Newcastle are to have any hope of keeping their season alive at the holders of, well, almost everything.
 
Manager to watch: Nuno Espirito Santo
Amid the FA Cup quarter-finals, there is a Premier League six-pointer taking place at Kenilworth Road where Luton host Nottingham Forest.
The Hatters would be at least level on points with their visitors had they not caved in at Bournemouth. As it is, Luton can match Forest’s present tally with a home win on Saturday afternoon.
Forest are fretting that they could slip below Luton anyway if they are punished with a points deduction for PSR breaches so they desperately need the six-point cushion an away win would bring.

That, and cry-arsing about refereeing decisions, seems to be occupying too much of Forest’s headspace right now, when their focus should be on what they can effect.
Nuno said as much before the defeat at Brighton, when once again the spotlight was shone on officials more than Forest’s failings, which are most prominent in front of goal. The manager has to prompt Forest to fund a cutting edge away from home, with this the first of four trips to relegation rivals in their five remaining away matches.
 
EFL game to watch: Swansea v Cardiff
You will be stunned to learn the Leeds are on the box again this weekend. But our focus takes us to South Wales for a derby that managers dare not lose.
The last 11 bosses to have lost this fixture were no longer in place by the time the next derby came around. Erol Bulut will enhance his prospects of being kept on at Cardiff by becoming the first Bluebirds boss ever to achieve a league double over the Swans. In doing so, Cardiff could kickstart their play-off hopes with five points and five places separating them from the top six.

Luke Williams needs a win to stave off lingering relegation fears. Swansea are seven places above the bottom three but only five points clear of the drop zone.
With neither side flying or full of confidence, and both managers wary of the consequence of defeat, this is likely to be viewed as must-not-lose, prompting a tight, tense affair. Maybe we should watch Leeds v Millwall after all.
 

Griezmann Simeone
© Provided by Football365
European game to watch: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona
Little time for Atletico and Barca to bask in their midweek Champions League triumphs before they clash in Madrid on Sunday evening.
Atletico really needed a last eight place after their domestic season faltered in recent weeks. Diego Simeone’s side lost their Copa del Rey semi-final against Athletic Bilbao and went down 2-0 to lowly Cadiz to sit fourth in La Liga, 14 points behind leaders Real.

They could end the weekend three or nine points off Barca above them. If Atletico lose, they could fall out of the Champions League spots.
Defeat for Barca coupled with a win for Real at Osasuna would effectively end what slim hopes the Catalans retain of bridging the eight-point gap to the leaders.

Championship Spotlight: Birmingham City’s relegation fears intensify; Watford *finally* sack Ismael

The Championship Spotlight is on Watford *finally* reverting to type and sacking their manager, while Birmingham City’s relegation fears intensify.
 
POZZO FAMILY *FINALLY* PUSH WATFORD SACK BUTTON
The Pozzo era at Watford has certainly been a rollercoaster for their supporters but it has largely been a success. Since their takeover in 2012, a significant portion of their seasons have been spent in the Premier League and they also reached an FA Cup final.This has been achieved despite Watford’s owners adopting a cut-throat sack policy, with 19 permanent managers hired and fired in 12 years.

In the process, Watford have been reduced to being a meme despite this method working for the large part.
With their Italian owners seemingly sick of being purely known for their trigger-happy approach to manager sackings (along with their dodgy-looking deals with family-owned Udinese), they have altered their approach this term and stuck with Valerien Ismael for much longer than they would have done previously.
Doubling down on their U-turn, Ismael was even given a new three-year contract during the early weeks of this season. At the time, this was hardly deserved as Watford had made a poor start to the campaign and sat in the relegation zone.
This felt like the first time that the Pozzo family were giving their full backing to a Watford manager and this bore fruit, to begin with. Ismael’s contract announcement preceded an upturn in form which saw the club flirt with a play-off challenge.


Opting for a new contract bounce instead of a more familiar new manager bounce, the eventual result was the same as the pixy dust eventually ran out before more disappointment came their way. Injuries, a lack of investment and an underperforming head coach have contributed to a severe decline in form, which has only been topped by Rotherham United, who are likely to be relegated before this month is out.
READ MORE: Leicester, Leeds United gatecrash promotion places… Championship teams ranked by record signing
Now 13 points adrift of the top six, Watford’s hopes of a return to the Premier League are over for another season and the results at the bottom have dragged the Hornets into an unexpected relegation scrap.
Watford and Ismael would have hoped to crawl to the end of the season unscathed so they could reassess their respective futures in the summer, but with the club likely requiring at least a couple more wins to secure safety – only seven points currently separate the Hornets and the relegation zone – a change had to be made.

The interim appointment of Tom Cleverley immediately made everyone feel old. Still, it is a sensible move as, according to a report from The Athletic, the former Manchester United midfielder is a popular figure at Vicarage Road and his work as their under-18s coach has left a positive impression.
Will the good vibes provided by Cleverley’s appointment be enough to save Watford from relegation? Probably. But more serious questions and choppy waters lie ahead with this being the final season of them benefitting from parachute payments following their drop from the Premier League.
 
MOWBRAY-LESS BIRMINGHAM CITY SET FOR LEAGUE ONE?
A team far more likely to drop down to League One is Birmingham City. During their breathless season, they were initially in contention for a shock play-off push under their new American owners before their brainless decision to replace John Eustace with Wayne Rooney kickstarted their freefall.I have given Birmingham’s owners and Rooney a lot of flak in this column this season (and rightly so), but the decision-makers at St Andrew’s wisely parted company with the Manchester United legend before his brief reign as manager could do *even more* long-lasting damage.

Opting for a safe pair of hands to guide them to Championship safety for another season, Birmingham drafted in the experienced Tony Mowbray to replace Rooney shortly after the veteran followed Eustace in being a victim of a harsh sacking at Sunderland.
READ MORE: Eddie Howe sack? Ten most brutal mid-season Premier League axeings would need an update
The 60-year-old masterminded a much-needed upturn in form at Birmingham City as they won four of his first eight games in charge to ease their relegation fears.
But just as you thought the Blues were cruising to an uneventful end to the season, an unforeseen spanner was thrown into the works as it was announced after back-t0-back wins over Blackburn Rovers and Sunderland that Mowbray would be stepping down from his role temporarily to undergo medical treatment.
At the time of the announcement on February 19, the club indicated that Mowbray would be away for six to eight weeks so he *should* be able to make a return at some point in April.

The F365 team wish Mowbray a speedy recovery and Birmingham’s faithful will certainly be hoping for a rapid return as the club’s five-game winless run leaves them just a point clear of the bottom three.
Of the teams in the bottom half, Birmingham are one of the worst-performing sides at the moment and their relegation fears are intensifying with each game that passes.
Their home match against Watford this weekend (which precedes a six-pointer at QPR) is as big as it gets for the struggling side, who desperately need the return of Mowbray and a scrappy win to halt their slump with Huddersfield Town and Sheffield Wednesday breathing down their necks.
Relegation is something Birmingham’s owners would never have envisioned when Rooney was drafted in, but this is now a more than realistic outcome to this season.
While they have taken the appropriate steps to right the wrong of sacking Eustace, they will be fortunate if they come out of this campaign without suffering relegation to League One.

Champions League draw: Arsenal vs Kane, Man City vs Real Madrid set as all-Prem semi-final looms

Arsenal and Manchester City have learned their next Champions League opponents before they could face each other in the semi-finals.
Man City and Real Madrid have met at the semi-final stage in the last two seasons, with the Premier League champions hammering the Spanish giants 4-0 at the Etihad Stadium last season on their way to winning their first Champions League title.

Arsenal vs Kane…

Arsenal have been drawn against six-time European champions Bayern Munich, whose star striker Harry Kane happens to be the former talisman of their bitter north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur.
The Gunners have lost each of their last three meetings with Bayern 5-1, so will be hoping for much better this time around.
City and Arsenal will meet in the semi-finals if they can negotiate their tricky quarter-final ties.
Paris St Germain and Barcelona will go head to head, as will Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund.
The quarter-final first legs will be played on April 9 and 10, with the second legs the following week. The semi-finals take place on April 30 and May 1, with the return legs on May 7 and 8. Wembley will host the final on Saturday, June 1.
READ MORE: Mailbox… Is Declan Rice among Europe’s top six players? And is it okay for Ben White to swerve England?
More to follow…

Man Utd: Southgate, Potter appointments doubted after Ratcliffe ‘decides to fire’ Ten Hag

Steve McManaman thinks Man Utd will “go for a more high-profile” type of manager than Gareth Southgate or Graham Potter when they decide to replace Erik ten Hag.
The Red Devils enjoyed a solid first season under Ten Hag last term with the Dutchman leading them to an FA Cup final, League Cup silverware and a top-four finish in the Premier League.

Stever McManaman: I think the job is so big

However, this campaign has not gone to plan with Man Utd finishing bottom of their Champions League group and currently struggling for consistency in sixth place in the Premier League.
There have been rumours that current England manager Southgate could be one of the potential replacements if new co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe decides on a change of manager at Man Utd this summer.
But Liverpool icon Steve McManaman doesn’t think Southgate or former Chelsea boss Graham Potter are the right profile of manager to take over from the Dutchman.
McManaman told Betfred: “I think he would be fine personally, but I just can’t see it happening. I believe Manchester United have to go for a more high-profile manager than Gareth.
READ MORE: Mediawatch: Look at the misery on the face of poor Jadon Sancho, living a ‘life in limbo’
“That’s no disrespect to him, but I just think they would have to go for a day-to-day manager, someone who’s been in the job every single day, rather than an international manager. I’d be surprised if they went for someone like Graham Potter too, but they may do.
Related video: Why Manchester United Wants Dan Ashworth So Badly (Dailymotion)


“I’ve got no idea what David Brailsford and Sir Jim Ratcliffe want to do, but I think with the pressure from the fans, they would have to appoint a big-name manager and a big-name manager that has got something on their CV to say ‘I can manage Manchester United.’
“I think the job is so big. I’ve had this discussion before about certain clubs, but you’ve got to hire the right manager with the right CV and the right stature.
“You can’t go for managers with question marks over their names and that’s what Gareth would be because he hasn’t been a day-to-day manager for years and he hasn’t necessarily lifted trophies at the highest level and that’s what the Manchester United fans would want.
“You can imagine Gareth or Graham Potter being appointed after Jürgen Klopp for example, and as I’ve said, I really like these managers, but you can imagine what the fans would be like if these managers came in.

“They would be saying ‘what about this and what about that?’, and as soon as you have question marks over managers, you’re on the back foot straight away.
“You need a manager to come in and be like ‘he’s done this, he’s done that, he’s won this and he’s won that,’ and that’s how you get your message across and win over all the fans because ultimately that’s who you’re trying to please. You might think it’s the right decision for yourself as the boss, but you’ve got 40 million fans around the world who start to question you, and that’s when the trouble starts.”
The speculation over a potential new manager was ramped up recently with a report in Spain claiming that new Man Utd co-owner Ratcliffe had ‘decided to fire’ Ten Hag at the end of the season.

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