Bitcoin Halved; What Next?

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20 Apr 2024
32

The big event for both Bitcoin and crypto, The Bitcoin Halving, has just taken place with the rewards for bitcoin miners dropping from 6.25 bitcoins per mining block to 3.125.
The reason why this is important is quite simple. First, markets anticipate this as a bullish event, they try a front run it, we just saw that. And in terms of why this is important for the market cycle is we are having a reduction in supply with ever-increasing demand.
According to Coin Telegraph, the landmark occasion sees a reduction in bitcoin mining rewards. This has another effect to; it's going to put pressure on miners. Less funded mining operations will probably capitulate and a consolidation will take place where the strong survive and the weak wither away.
A lot of predictions see bitcoin price surging to as high as $250k. From previous market cycles I wouldn't be surprised if we had a lull here. The shock to supply will take some time to have a significant effect and once you are by this very exciting event, some of that FOMO will start to subside. With the summer approaching, we can see a slow down in financial markets.
However, this could be a totally different ball game as we saw previously leading to the halving event we had the first exchange-traded funds being approved by the SEC with Blackrock and Fidelity leading the way and bringing a lot of extra flows into the bitcoin asset. It's also the first time that bitcoin hit all-time highs prior to the halving.
Bitcoin investor Tim Draper stated that the simple reason bitcoin prices go up after the halving is that supply goes down. and with a continued upwards pressure on demand, the price naturally goes up in a free market.
According to Grayscale's Market Byte report titled Glass Half Full, despite the evidence of a strong economy the Federal Reserve will likely stick with its plans to cut rates this year because short-term interest rates are well above policy makers' estimates of what is neutral. there have been a lot of rumbling out there and they may not cut at all. We are going to see at some point those rates come down but the longer we stay in this restrictive fiscal policy, the longer those rates stay higher and there's significant economic risks especially in the short term.
In Grayscales research view, the macro backdrop as well as favorable supply and demand technical due to the halving could be consistent with further increase in bitcoin's price increase this year and that would align with what we have seen in the past. According to the article, there is an increasing conversation in crypto markets about Ethereum which faces competition from other smart contract blockchains which has a pending decision on a Spot Ethereum ETF. Bitcoin's price has consolidated in a relatively narrow range since reaching an all-time high on March 13. Although certain macro risks have increased, seeing what's going on in the Middle-East, we are having troublesome signs in the economy. Grayscale sees a glass-half-full type of set up where there is more to be excited about than there is to be scared of.
The general consensus here is that prices continue to go up throughout this year. Some of the things to watch out for are inflation numbers, Tech sector and expansion of war and conflict.


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