Strategy Under Siege! 🚨 MSTR Stock Price Plummets, Facing Nasdaq Index Removal Risk?

Strategy (MicroStrategy), the most prominent Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) company globally, is currently navigating a period of intense market scrutiny. Amidst a generally weak Bitcoin price environment, the firm is grappling with what analysts describe as a "four-fold crisis of confidence," testing the viability of its Bitcoin Maximalist business model.

Collapse of the Market NAV (mNAV) Premium: The premium investors were willing to pay for Strategy stock relative to its net asset value (mNAV) has shrunk dramatically, at one point dipping below 1.0. This unprecedented Negative Premium indicates the market valued the company's operating business less than the Bitcoin it held—a sharp reversal from its historical peak premium of 2.66x. This contraction weakens the company’s ability to raise capital through equity, potentially forcing it into equity dilution cycles that further pressure the stock price.

Negative Stock Price Premium and Index Risk: As of November 21, 2025, Strategy’s total market capitalization stood at approximately $50.9 billion, significantly below the $66.87 billion market value of its Bitcoin holdings (purchased at an average cost of $74,433 per BTC). This negative valuation has triggered fears that MSTR stock could be excluded from major indices like the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI US Index. JP Morgan estimated that potential outflows resulting from MSCI index removal could reach $2.8 billion, with total index selling potentially hitting $11.6 billion if other providers follow suit. While Strategy remains safe within the Nasdaq 100 zone for now, MSCI is actively evaluating a proposal to exclude companies whose primary business is holding crypto assets exceeding 50% of their balance sheet.

Slowing Accumulation and Financing: Strategy’s pace of Bitcoin accumulation has noticeably slowed, purchasing only 9,062 BTC in November, a stark decrease from figures seen in the previous year. To maintain liquidity and fund its operations, the company has resorted to new financing tools, including issuing its first Euro-denominated Perpetual Preferred Stock, raising approximately $710 million, albeit at high dividend yields (8–10%).

Executive Stock Sales: Adding to market anxiety, Strategy disclosed significant stock sales by its executives, totaling nearly $20 million since September. While the sales were executed under pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans—designed to mitigate insider trading risks—they contributed to the general atmosphere of bearish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Despite these headwinds, multiple analysts, including those from Matrixport and CryptoQuant, strongly argue that the risk of Strategy being forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to service debt is extremely low. Their debt structure is predominantly long-term convertible bonds, with distant maturity dates (2027–2032), and the company possesses ample options for debt servicing, such as refinancing or using operational cash flow. Michael Saylor has repeatedly reaffirmed his "HODL" philosophy, stating that Strategy will not sell its BTC unless the price crashes below $10,000. Analysts believe that any sale would fundamentally destroy market trust in MSTR as a "Bitcoin Treasury Company," triggering a self-fulfilling death spiral for both the stock and Bitcoin itself, a scenario Saylor is committed to avoiding.