Do you think spot etf will be approved?
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% on Wednesday, with reports of an analyst’s opinion on the expected U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval later this month contributing to a flush of highly-levered futures tracking the largest cryptocurrency.
While professional analysts remain mixed on the market impact of the approval, expected by Jan. 15, they largely forecast a positive decision from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as does the crypto community, which is betting on it using prediction market Polymarket.
Polymarket allows users to bet on topics including sports, politics, and pop culture. Prices represent the current probability of an event taking place and range from $0 to 99 cents – resolving to $1 when any bet is ended.
One popular market is the “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?” bet, which has attracted almost $1 million in volume from hundreds of users.
"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if any spot Bitcoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by January 15, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No,'" conditions of the bet say. "The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used."
