When will artificial intelligence be smarter than humans?

23 May 2024

Recently, technology billionaire Elon Musk predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) will be smarter than the smartest person by 2025 or 2026, as long as the power supply and hardware can meet the needs of the technology. This is growing stronger and stronger.

Many experts around the world have also made predictions about when artificial super intelligence will equal or even surpass humans in the near future. However, there are still people who believe that this achievement will take many decades to achieve.

Mr. Musk's forecast

"If you define AGI (artificial general intelligence) as being smarter than the smartest person, I think that could happen next year or within two years," Mr. Musk said when asked about the milestone. time for the development of AGI.

According to the Financial Times, billionaire Musk is always optimistic about the development of AGI - AI tools so powerful that they can defeat the best people in any field. His April 8 forecast was even earlier than previous predictions by himself and others. In 2023, Mr. Musk predicted that artificial super intelligence or full-blown AGI would exist by 2029.

The pace of AI development has slowed due to a lack of chip supply, especially chips produced by Nvidia - which are essential for training and running AI models. Mr. Musk said the chip shortage is a major obstacle to AI development at the present time, but power supply will be very important in the next 1-2 years.

Along with making his latest forecast, Mr. Musk also announced that his AI startup, xAI, will finish training the second version of Grok's model - the AI ​​chatbot - in May, and said that it will be better than OpenAI Company's GPT-4 - the model that is leading the market. According to Mr. Musk, Grok 2 training requires about 20,000 Nvidia H100 graphics chips (GPUs) while later versions will need even more chips.

Mr. Musk has spent a lot of time and focused more resources on xAI over the past year. He is raising billions of dollars from investors in the US, the Middle East and Hong Kong (China) to compete with OpenAI.

What do other experts say?

Several AI breakthroughs over the past 18 months, including the launch of more powerful chatbots and video streaming tools, have pushed AI to move faster than expected. In a March discussion with host Joe Rogan in a podcast, famous American computer scientist Ray Kurzweil asserted that AI will achieve human-level intelligence by 2029.

Mr. Kurzweil analyzed the exponential development of technology, especially AI, from which he predicted that humans are developing rapidly in computing power, complex algorithms and data processing ability. With these advances, Mr. Kurzweil believes that AI will catch up and even surpass human intelligence.

Mr. Kurzweil said people can expect AI to surpass human intelligence in 100 years, but he believes AI will reach this milestone in the next five years - a forecast very similar to the billionaire's 2023 forecast. rich Musk

Previously, during the 2024 AI Summit in Panama in late February to early March, leading AI expert Ben Goertzel said that humans could achieve AGI within the next 3-8 years, according to Yahoo News. Earlier this year, Mr. Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google's DeepMind AI Company, predicted that AGI could be achieved by 2030.

However, Mr. Brad Smith, president of Microsoft, does not think AGI will appear soon. In November 2023, Mr. Smith said there was no chance of AGI being created within the next 12 months and noted the technology could take decades to develop. "It is absolutely unlikely that you will see so-called AGI, where computers are more powerful than humans, in the next 12 months. It will take years, if not decades," said Mr. Smith.

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