The middle east is on fire.
Good afternoon Bulbers!
In today's global village type world every conflict making huge impact on neighbors especially and whole region commonly so rapidly that never happened before. Current Iran Israel conflict bringing huge price hike in some things like petroleum products, soya seeds and imported fertilizer in my home land within a week of war. Let's see what is basically this conflict is ,
The Iran-Israel conflict is one of the most complex and volatile geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rooted in ideological opposition, regional power struggles, and proxy warfare, it poses a significant threat not only to regional stability but also to global peace. Understanding the historical backdrop, the current situation, and the roles of neighboring countries and global superpowers is essential to assess whether Iran truly threatens Israel or if the threat is exaggerated through propaganda.
Historical Background.
The roots of the Iran-Israel conflict trace back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Before this, under the Shah, Iran maintained cordial relations with Israel. However, the revolution brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power, establishing a theocratic regime that opposed Israel’s existence, referring to it as the "Zionist regime." Iran ceased all diplomatic ties and began supporting anti-Israel groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and later Hamas in Gaza.
Iran’s foreign policy since the revolution has been driven by a combination of religious ideology and a desire to expand its influence across the Middle East, often by confronting Israel and the U.S.-led Western order. Israel, for its part, views Iran’s nuclear ambitions and support for militant groups as existential threats.
Current War Situation.
As of 2025, tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated further. Following Israel's intensified military operations in Gaza and Syria, Iran-backed groups have increased their attacks on Israeli targets. Iran is accused of arming Hezbollah with precision-guided missiles and supplying drones to groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. In response, Israel has ramped up its covert and direct military actions against Iranian targets in Syria and even within Iran.
In April 2024, a drone and missile attack on Israeli territory, believed to be coordinated by Iran and its proxies, marked a sharp escalation. Israel retaliated by targeting Iranian military facilities and scientists allegedly involved in its nuclear program. This undeclared war, mostly fought in the shadows, has edged closer to direct confrontation.
Role of Iran’s Neighbors
Iran’s neighbors play significant, and often conflicting, roles in this ongoing conflict. Iraq, heavily influenced by Iranian-backed militias, serves as a staging ground for attacks on U.S. and Israeli interests. Syria, under Bashar al-Assad, relies on Iranian support and allows Iran to maintain a military presence near Israel’s borders.
On the other hand, Gulf Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE view Iran as a threat and have increasingly aligned themselves both overtly and covertly with Israel. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, largely driven by shared concerns over Iran.
Turkey’s stance is more nuanced. While critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza, it also maintains economic and military relations with the West and occasionally condemns Iran’s regional ambitions.
Iran a Real Threat or Just Propaganda?
The idea that Iran is an existential threat to Israel is not entirely unfounded. Iran’s development of ballistic missiles, enrichment of uranium beyond JCPOA limits, and explicit calls to destroy Israel have raised alarm. Iran’s support for proxy groups that regularly attack Israeli interests also adds to the threat perception.
However, some analysts argue that the Iranian threat is also exaggerated by Israeli and U.S. political establishments to justify military interventions and divert attention from domestic issues. Iran’s economic challenges, internal dissent, and lack of conventional military parity with Israel suggest its capacity for large-scale aggression may be limited.
Role of Global Superpowers
The United States, Israel’s closest ally, has provided unwavering military and diplomatic support, while trying—often unsuccessfully to contain Iran through sanctions and diplomatic pressure. Russia, a key ally of Iran and Syria, has played a balancing act, occasionally restraining Iranian actions to maintain regional stability but also opposing Israeli strikes on Syrian soil.
China’s approach has been more economic and diplomatic. It maintains good relations with both Iran and Israel and has pushed for de-escalation through multilateral talks. In 2023, China even brokered a historic Saudi-Iran rapprochement, showcasing its growing influence in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Conclusion
The Iran-Israel conflict remains a dangerous flashpoint with far-reaching consequences. While Iran does pose a real threat to Israeli security, especially through asymmetric and proxy warfare, the narrative of an imminent existential threat may sometimes be overstated. Global superpowers must act responsibly: the U.S. should pursue a balanced strategy that includes diplomacy; Russia must prevent escalation through its regional leverage and China could serve as a mediator. A regional security framework involving all stakeholders may be the only sustainable path to peace.
Note: The article also published on my read.cash wall.
Cheers,
Amjad
