https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-bearish-64k-5-things-bitcoin-this-week

Hzpf...LjCK

4 Mar 2024

Ad

$

BTC
$67,246
ETH
$3,573
USDT
$1.0008
BNB
$418
SOL
$129
XRP
$0.65
USDC
$1.00
ADA
$0.783
AVAX
$42.67
TRX
$0.141
DOGE
$0.18
LINK
$20.19
DOT
$9.96
MATIC
$1.12
ICP
$12.97
SHIB
$0.00
DAI
$1.00
BCH
$464
LTC
$90.81
UNI
$12.43
ETC
$35.00
ATOM
$12.31
HBAR
$0.12
FIL
$9.92

Ad

WILLIAM SUBERG
9 HOURS AGO

Why are BTC traders bearish above $64K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin is approaching price discovery — but traders and analysts are upping bets on a BTC price correction.
13355
54

10:12
MARKETS NEWS
Own this piece of crypto history

Collect this article as NFTJoin us on social networks

Bitcoin
BTC
$67,246
starts a new week with bulls gunning for all-time highs as February’s BTC price transformation continues.After a solid monthly close, the first weekly candle of March completed comfortably above $60,000.
As anticipation mounts of what might come next, sellers tacitly accept that there may be nothing in the way of Bitcoin heading into price discovery.
The scenario marks one of the most optimistic outcomes for 2024 and is considerably better than what many traders and analysts expected.
That said, plenty of volatility hurdles remain in place between now and the end of the month — and April’s block subsidy halving remains a pivotal moment in itself.
The action gets underway almost immediately with the United States Federal Reserve due to provide guidance on the state of the economy.
Should this offer no surprises for risk-asset traders, crypto already has enough to contend with — the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may continue buying BTC. Still, the average investor is now acting out of “extreme greed.”
Can the market trajectory sustain its recent trend, or is a more substantial correction and consolidation period possible?
Cointelegraph looks at the current state of Bitcoin markets at what could become a watershed moment for the current BTC price cycle.

Bitcoin approaches crunch all-time high zone

Bitcoin began the week with a bang on March 4 as the weekly close sparked a $2,000 hourly price swing, which included a new multiyear high.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms $64,282 was hit on Bitstamp, with BTC/USD now acting even higher — near $65,000.
Barely $5,000 separates bulls from new all-time highs, capping year-to-date gains of over 50%, on-chain statistics resource CoinGlass confirms.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Across social media, traders and analysts are split between optimism and disbelief, and calls for a major reversal remain vocal.
“Interesting timeline to read today. 50% calling for considerably higher, 50% calling for market to rug. Typically this occurs each week tbh, however this is noticeably more split than usual,” popular trader Skew wrote in his latest post on X.

“Current prices for large caps likely around major psychological inflection points. Reason why this is important is because on the next major move in the market this imbalance leads to more momentum & a consensus ~ Likely where the mean reversion trade actually is.”

Skew referred to consensus for upside continuation around the sensitive all-time high level from 2021. So far, other local highs from that year have failed to act as resistance for long.
On the more cautious side is Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
In his most recent analysis, he suggested that BTC/USD may yet form a “cup and handle” pattern at the all-time highs, correcting to as low as $40,000 in a brutal test for bulls and bears alike.
“Would you be ready for this? BTC rally to old ATH to take out all the bears, then after halving has a correction towards $50k or $40k Bitcoin to take out all the bulls,” he wrote.

“Then rally all the way back to ATH to take out all the bears... We stay in this range until Q4 2024.

BTC/USD chart with “cup and handle” shown. Source: Venturefounder/X
Contrasting the opinion is the argument that, in broader terms, crypto investing is still not on the radar of the mainstream majority.
Should this change, a new wave of viral interest in both Bitcoin and altcoins could materialize, fuelling an increasingly parabolic market.
ADVERTISEMENT
2 HOURS AGO

Redefining digital identity: Metropolis joins Cointelegraph Accelerator

Metropolis, a 360-degree curated universe that blends commerce, gaming and experiences, has joined Cointelegraph Accelerator.
Cointelegraph has announced that Metropolis has become the latest participant in the Cointelegraph Accelerator program. Metropolis is a 360-degree curated universe that blends commerce, properties, avatars and gaming with experiences that span both the digital and physical worlds.
While general-purpose nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces such as OpenSea cater to a wider range of users, the NFT space is witnessing a shift toward platforms that offer a tailored experience for both newcomers and pro users, and brands who want to tap into the world of NFT have already started taking notice. Famous brands like Nike and Gucci are known for creating a $260 million side business via branded NFT sales.

Curated NFT marketplaces on the rise

DappRadar metrics show that, as the NFT trading hits $1.5 billion in volume, Blur — an NFT marketplace known for its tailored content — has the most trading volume despite accounting for 4% of NFT sales. Curated NFT marketplaces enable a focused environment for brands to generate new revenue streams through engagement with their core audience. Such platforms offer a selective content approach, focusing on quality and additional community-building tools.

Read more

“Bulls in complete control heading into the weekly close,” analyst Matthew Hyland concluded at the weekend.

“The majority have been, and are still offsides. Maybe on the Crypto Twitter Bubble it feels too good to be true but in the real world most people have no exposure. The panic hasn't started to set in but it will.”

Analyst cautions on crypto market “froth”

Delving into the chances of a correction is Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments.
Screenshot of Edwards X post suggesting a possible correction in the price of BTC. Source: Charles Edwards/X
Adopting a sober mood this week, Edwards — who has placed considerable importance on the impact of next month’s halving — was unconvinced about recent moves.
Even if a snap turnaround does not occur immediately, he argues, the residual fervor from last month may simply be taking longer to fade.
“Froth can remain for 2-3 weeks before a flush. That means mid-late March potentially,” he warned.
Edwards stressed that he is not bearish from a long-term standpoint. As an investor, risk management is necessary — particularly with markets at such crucial historical levels.
“Price can always go up, it's just risk mgmt and probabilities. The risk profile here is very different (worse) to when Bitcoin was $16K, for example. Simply something to keep in mind for portfolio mgmt,” he continued.

“Volatility in these zones (both up and down) goes up by orders of magnitude. Look at early 2021 for a comparable to today. I still think this bull market has a LONG way to go.”

Early 2021 saw a similar period of euphoria throughout crypto before coming to a head in early Q2, with a subsequent correction keeping new all-time highs for Bitcoin off the chart until November.

Bitcoin market cap’s counterargument to overheated derivatives

Accompanying concerns of overheated markets are some of the highest funding rates in history.
According to current CoinGlass data, some platforms are even seeing more than 0.1%, while largest global exchange Binance is itself at nearly 0.05%.
BTC funding rate history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Open interest — a key precursor to BTC price volatility — tells a story of its own, hitting a giant $27.7 billion on March 4.
BTC open interest (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Despite this, one analyst noted Bitcoin’s larger market cap last week means that the open interest tally has more room to grow.
“Bitcoin open interest in notional value is approaching all-time highs. However, when you divide it by the current market cap, it’s sitting at just 2.25%, a historical average,” James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, summarized in part of an X post.
An accompanying chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed a similar situation on both Bitcoin and the largest altcoin Ether
ETH
$3,573
.Open interest divided by market cap for Bitcoin, Ether. Source: James Van Straten/X
This week meanwhile, began with CME Group’s Bitcoin futures initially trading several hundred dollars higher than spot markets.
CME Group Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Fed’s Powell set to convey “hawkish stance” in testimony

The Fed — and in particular Chair Jerome Powell — is the highlight of the upcoming macro week in the United States.
Over two days beginning March 6, Powell will testify before a House committee and Senate panel, giving policymakers an update on the economy.
The biannual event is expected to see Powell maintain now-familiar narratives on inflation and interest rates.
The latter is especially pertinent to crypto and risk assets, with a long-awaited rate cut apt to boost performance. So far, this has yet to happen, and recent macro data has made markets push back the odds to later in the year.
“Powell is expected to maintain a hawkish stance in his semiannual testimony to Congress, signaling to markets that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates,” a group of Bloomberg analysts summarized this weekend.
“If that leads to tighter financial conditions, it will keep the pressure on the economy and raise the chance of additional lagged impacts from monetary policy.”
While markets see little chance of a further rate hike to come, the chances of a March cut were almost zero as of March 4, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
In its weekly rundown of upcoming macro events, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter nonetheless hinted that plenty of volatility was to come before the Fed’s decision, due March 20.
“We are currently 17 days out from the long anticipated March Fed meeting. A lot is happening before then,” it concluded on X.
Data due in the coming days includes nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week.

Sentiment data shows price fixation

For the average crypto investor, the lure of all-time highs is having a familiar effect on sentiment.
Related: Bitcoin daily withdrawals challenge records as $2B leaves exchanges
According to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, levels of “extreme greed” are at multiyear highs.
At 82/100, these are increasingly at levels that have historically marked market turnarounds due to unsustainable trajectory.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
Analyzing social media phenomena, research firm Santiment last week also implied that more attention on price may contribute to a cooling-off phase.
“Following an explosive February full of some of the biggest monthly market cap gains in crypto's history, discussions have increasingly moved toward price-related topics. Mainly, Bitcoin, AI tokens, & $PEPE,” it noted after the monthly close.

“Markets can flatten for a bit as a result.”

Crypto keyword frequency data. Source: Santiment/X
An accompanying chart showed the changing frequency of certain topics appearing on social media platforms over time.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Exchange or buy BTC

Disclaimer: The information contained on this widget is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained on this widget constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Cointelegraph or any third party service provider to buy or sell any cryptoassets or other financial instruments. We advise you to spend only what you can afford to lose, and always seek independent financial advice if you are in doubt. You should not purchase any cryptoassets if you do not fully understand the nature of your purchase and the risks involved. We recommend that you refer to the issuer’s/ advertiser’s t&c and help/ support pages for more information.
Ad

1
1
1
1
READ MORE

Ad

JESSE COGHLAN
10 HOURS AGO

Tether’s USDT stablecoin hits historic $100B market cap

The largest stablecoin by market capitalization has gotten even larger, with Tether hitting a record $100 billion market cap.
16156
7

3:03

NEWS
Own this piece of crypto history

Collect this article as NFTJoin us on social networks

Crypto stablecoin Tether
USDT
$1.00
has crossed an all-time high market capitalization of $100 billion, posting a 9% year-to-date growth and furthering the gap between its next-largest rival, USD Coin USDC
$1.00
.USDT momentarily hit its $100 billion milestone on March 4 as the market capitalization fluctuates based on the current price and circulating supply, according to data from CoinGecko.
It’s over $71 billion ahead in market cap compared to its closest stablecoin rival, USDC, issued by Circle, which has also seen its market cap grow this year.
Chart showing USDT market cap growth in the last seven days. Source: CoinGecko
On the other hand, Tether has yet to breach the $100 billion milestone on other data sources, such as CoinMarketCap.
Tether’s market cap places it around par with the British oil and gas titan BP and a little above the e-commerce giant Shopify.
Tether is a cryptocurrency pegged to the price of the United States dollar available on 14 blockchains and protocols, according to its website.
It’s the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization behind Ether
ETH
$3,573
, and it has grown to play a key role as a blockchain-based option for crypto traders needing a stable asset.Over the past month, the crypto market has sprung back to a market cap above $2 trillion, with Bitcoin
BTC
$67,246
seeing a 50% price increase and notching two-year price highs.The company that issues the token — also called Tether — claims to back each USDT token 1:1 with its independently audited reserves primarily made up of yield-bearing U.S. Treasury Bills (T-Bills) — a short-term loan given to the U.S. government.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the company posted a record quarterly profit of $2.85 billion, $1 billion of which came from its T-Bills. Its fourth-quarter report disclosed T-Bills holdings of over $80 billion, and in the past, it claimed to be one of the world’s top buyers of U.S. government debt.
Tether’s Q4 2023 report also said it holds $2.8 billion worth of Bitcoin. Source: Tether
The quality of the assets backing USDT has been a cause of concern in the crypto space, and Tether has made efforts to reduce its exposure to some assets deemed higher risk.
Related: Stablecoins could boost dollar as global reserve currency: Fed governor
In late 2022, Tether pledged that by the end of 2023, it would stop lending out funds from its reserves.
Those plans never eventuated, with Tether having $4.8 billion of loans on its books at the end of 2023, although it’s about $1 billion less than it started the year with. It claims the loans are fully collateralized and promised to cut them to zero in 2024.
Over half of the USDT currently issued is on the Tron blockchain, which a January United Nations report said “has become a preferred choice” for Southeast Asia-based cyber fraud and money launders.
Tether has hit back at the report, claiming the UN failed to mention the company’s law enforcement collaboration and the token’s traceability.
Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom
Explore more articles like this
Subscribe to the Finance Redefined newsletter
A weekly summary of the most impactful DeFi stories, insights and education developments. Delivered every Friday
Subscribe

Crypto assets are a high-risk investment. You should consider whether you understand the possibility of losing money due to leverage. None of the material should be considered as investment advice!

Are you a journalist or an editor?
Join us