Bitcoin faces ‘sell the news event’ before 2024 BTC price all-time high
Bitcoin bulls will need to navigate a fresh sell-off around the halving, DecenTrader warns, arguing that BTC price action this time around will be no different than usual.
Bitcoin
BTC
tickers down
$42,970
should break new all-time highs in 2024 — but the halving will punish bulls first, new analysis says.
In its latest market update released on Feb. 2, trading suite DecenTrader predicted classic “halving year” BTC price behavior.
DecenTrader: Bitcoin will “test investors’ resolve” before Q4 all-time high
Bitcoin has around one month of sideways price action before markets begin to react to the upcoming block subsidy halving, DecenTrader believes.
Summarizing the BTC price roadmap for this year, CEO and co-founder Filbfilb told readers to expect a spike in buying around two months before the halving date, currently estimated for April 18.
This will be followed by another “sell the news event” — similar to the events surrounding the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January.
“Circa 75 days remain until the Bitcoin halving, with it due to occur around the 18th April 2024. This is important if we make a simple assumption, that there will be buying interest some time before the halving. I would expect this to be no later than 6 weeks before the halving – or around the second week of March,” Filbfilb wrote.
“This would mean that Bitcoin has around 30 days from now to meander through its corrective phase before finding the FOMO demand anticipated.”
Anticipation among speculators could take BTC/USD to its current two-year highs of $49,000 before an ETF copycat sell-off ensues.
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Thereafter, however, the path opens up to price discovery hitting before 2024 is over — a phenomenon seen during Bitcoin’s last halving year in 2020.
“Bitcoin has a tendency to front run the sell-the-news with a halving so bear that in mind,” Filbfilb continued.
“Following the Halving, Bitcoin has taken 220 – 240 days to break to new all time highs. I am expecting a similar outlook, with Bitcoin taking a trip to new all time highs in mid to late Q4 of 2024, which give some time for a correction to test investor’s revsolve inbetween.”
Bitcoin halving: Not different this time?
The timing of the coming months’ BTC price fluctuations makes Q1 difficult to navigate for traders.
Related: Bitcoin approaches 150 days in a $5K BTC price trading range
As Cointelegraph reported, beyond Bitcoin-specific factors, macroeconomic and geopolitical hurdles are lining up to cause wider risk-asset turbulence.
These include United States banking system weakness — something which Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, sees coming to a head in March.
Others believe a new all-time high for BTC/USD will not come until the end of 2025.
For Filbfilb, there is little reason to be overly optimistic on what the coming weeks will bring.
“What has become apparent is that a lot of people are convincing themselves that Bitcoin is going to run to new all time highs ahead of the Halving because ‘it’s different this time,’” he explained.
“I personally expect it to be no different to previous instances; there is an uncannily accurate market cycle schematic for Bitcoin born out of the emotions of investors into an asset class to which many are emotionally attached – it seems unwise to expect this to break (favorably) now.”
BTC/USD traded at just under $43,000 into the Feb. 4 weekly close, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
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Bitcoin ETFs hype stalled by due diligence — Bloomberg
Companies such as LPL Financial Holdings are currently conducting due diligence on the newly approved Bitcoin ETFs.
widespread adoption might be slower than expected. During a private webinar with CryptoQuant held in January, Seyffart predicted ETFs could attract $10 billion in inflows in their first year.
“A lot of the big institutions, these warehouses, these platforms where brokers or advisers work, they can’t just buy anything they want. There’s like an approved list and a not approved list,” the analyst explained.
“I do not think we’re going to get over $100 billion in the first year or two. [...] To put in perspective, gold ETFs have about $100 billion in the U.S. in total.”
As of Jan. 31, all the Bitcoin ETFs approved last month collectively held 656,421 BTC, up around 3% from the initial total holdings of 637,610 BTC, worth nearly $27 billion at current prices. The ETF’s performances had been heavily impacted by the outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which dumped a total of 132,195 Bitcoin after its conversion from an over-the-counter product to a listed ETF.
“Time is going to tell on the investment thesis. And that’s essentially what we’re monitoring at the moment,” said LPL’s Pettman.
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